🔔 Alec Bohm Is Scorching Hot

_{LAST GAME: Phillies 8 - Padres 6}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez, 2.96 ERA) vs. Angels (Griffin Canning, 7.50 ERA) | Today, 9:38 p.m. EDT | NCBSP, 94 WIP}

Good morning. A good morning indeed! The Phillies ripped apart the Padres over the weekend, capped by an 8-6 win yesterday in the, uh, eventful season debut of Taijuan Walker. The Phillies have now won four games in a row, 11 of their last 13, and, at 19-10, are officially off to their best start through 29 games in 13 years.

Alec Bohm for MVP! Ranger Suarez for Cy Young! Phillies for NL East champs!

Let’s get nuts!

In the email today:

On the morning of April 16, Alec Bohm woke up hitting .237 with a modest .704 OPS. In 12 games since then, he’s gone 25-for-48 (.521 BA) with 10 doubles, three homers, and 16 RBI while posting an obscene 1.474 OPS.

This morning, he wakes up with a .365/.441/.615 slash line while among MLB’s best in several key offensive categories. Bohm is absolutely on one right now.

Just how good has he been? This good:

• Bohm’s rankings among all MLB third basemen: .365 BA (1st), .441 OBP (1st), .615 SLG (1st), 1.056 OPS (1st), 12 doubles (1st), 17 total extra-base hits (1st), 26 RBI (1st), 4 homers (6th), 14 walks (3rd).

• Here’s how he stacks up against all hitters: BA (3rd), OBP (2nd), SLG (4th), OPS (3rd), RBI (2nd), doubles (2nd), total extra-base hits (3rd).

• Lefty? Righty? Who gives a shit? Against left-handers, Bohm is 13-for-35 (.371 BA) with a 1.107 OPS. Against right-handers, he’s 25-for-69 (.362 BA) with a 1.030 OPS. That type of consistency in platoon splits is damn impressive.

• No count is safe against him right now. He’s hitting .474 on the first pitch, .345 when he’s ahead in the count and .323 when the pitcher is ahead. He also has a .267 BA and .909 OPS with two strikes.

• Bohm has always been a productive hitter with runners in scoring position (.324 BA in 526 career plate appearances), but he’s been off the charts good this season with .448 BA and 1.323 OPS.

Our take: While he can’t possibly maintain his current pace (I don’t think?), Bohm is on track to finish with 212 hits, 67 doubles, 22 homers, 145 RBI and 78 walks. He’s playing at an MVP level right now. Speaking of which, he currently holds the 15th best odds at +5000 to win the award over at FanDuel.

Just saying.

2)📈 Things are Looking Up. Way Up.

Note: I’m going to delay the takes on Taijuan Walker for at least three starts. There was some good, some bad, and a curious decision to run him back out there for the seventh inning yesterday. Need to see more.

Now for the good stuff:

• While the starting pitching (more below) continues to dominate headlines, the Phillies’ bats are heating up. Over their last 12 games, the Phillies have averaged 6.25 runs per game. In that time, they’ve moved from 26th in runs per game (3.53) to 12th overall (4.66).

• The Phillies lead all National League teams with 37 homers (they trail only the Orioles’ 44 homers). They also sit safely among the top five NL squads in BA, OBP, SLG and OPS.

• Much has been made about this lineup’s strikeout problem. They sit in the middle of the pack in terms of K% at 22.3%. That’s down from last season when their 23.9 K% was 11th highest.

• Ranger Suarez is putting up video game numbers. In six starts, he’s posted a 1.32 ERA with a 0.64 WHIP in 41 IP.

• Given his numbers, it should come as no surprise that both left-handed and right-handed hitters have had an equal lack of success against him. LHH are batting .143 while RHH check in at .156.

• Suarez by the numbers (among MLB starting pitchers): 1.32 ERA (2nd), 2.02 expected ERA (1st), 41 IP (2nd), 0.63 WHIP (1st), .152 OPP BA (3rd).

• He may not blow you away with stuff and strikeout numbers, but his 60.8% ground ball percentage ranks best among all starters while his 1.10 BB/9 is second. That’s a formula for sustained success.

• Ground or air, opponents aren’t making hard contact. According to MLB Statcast, the 81.9 MPH average exit velo he’s allowed is the lowest among all MLB starting pitchers while his 27.6% hard-hit rate is third-lowest.

3) 🙄 Tweet of the Day: Those Guys…

Excellent job by the NBCSP crew here on the outro after the Phillies completed the sweep yesterday. Simply A+ work.

By the way, I still hate those guys.

4)📊 Poll Question: Power Rank the Phillies

At 19-10, the Phillies are tied with the Yankees for the third-best record in baseball. They are currently on a 106-win pace. Which begs the question…

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response Friday.

…

Results from our last poll from last week [Has the Phillies six-game winning streak changed your expectations?]:

Your replies…

“This is exactly what they needed to do. I'm happy about it but the only way these 6 games would've changed my expectations was a split or worse. Moving along.”

“The Phillies are playing well, but so are the Mets and Braves, who have more come from behind miracle wins than any team should.”

“My expectations have always been that this team should be contending for the division. But for a team that has a tendency to play down to it's opponents, seeing them take care of business was a nice breath of fresh air.”

…

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🏠 Brandon Marsh has found purpose in Philadelphia.

• 🎙️ Here’s Scott Franzke’s call on Taijuan Walker’s insane catch.

• 👷‍♂️ Seranthony Dominguez needs a better slider. He’s working on it.

• ❓ Spencer Turnbull will start Tuesday against the Angels. Then what?

• 🤩 J.T. Realmuto is understandably having fun catching this rotation.

• 💯 Playoffs? The Phillies currently have an 84.4% postseason probability, per FanGraphs. On April 29 last season, the Phillies held a 50.8% playoff probability.

The newsletter today was written by Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!