🔔 Bryson Stott Is Getting Even Better

_{LAST GAME: PHILLIES 5 - METS 4}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Aaron Nola, 3.67 ERA) vs. Mets (Jose Butto, 3:00 ERA) | Today, 1:10 p.m. EDT | NBC 10, 94 WIP}

Good afternoon. The Phillies still haven’t lost back-to-back games since April 23-24 thanks to a late rally over the Mets last night. In a comeback win reminiscent of the 2007-2011 era, the Phillies left Citi Field, trumpets and all, in a state of shock. The red-hot Bryson Stott became the latest Met-killer by launching a solo shot in the ninth inning before eventually delivering the go-ahead sacrifice fly in the tenth.

The Phillies send Aaron Nola to the mound this afternoon looking to sweep the short two-game set in Queens before both teams play a pair of games at Citizens Bank Park beginning tomorrow night.

In the email today:

It was a tough first month of the season for Bryson Stott. He entered May hitting just .225 with a .682 OPS, but he has quickly turned around the entire look and feel of his season this month.

Stott, who has hit safely in 9 of his last 10 games, is 13-for-30 (.433 BA) with a .525 on-base percentage in May.

Thanks to his recent run, he currently holds career-bests in batting average (.277), on-base percentage (.371), slugging percentage (.454), and, by extension, OPS (.824).

After reaching base in all five plate appearances during the Phillies’ 7-6 loss to the Marlins Sunday, Stott delivered two memorable at-bats for this season’s Phillies Video Yearbook that propelled a dramatic come-from-behind win.

It has long been apparent that Stott is, at worst, a stellar big league player who is capable of handling a big moment. But what has been unclear is where he lands in terms of his overall offensive upside. That’s why one significant improvement in his game about a quarter of the way through this season has been particularly interesting.

After walking just 39 times in 640 plate appearances a season ago, Stott has already walked 19 times in 143 plate appearances this season. That puts him on pace for 73 walks, more than double his 2023 output. Viewed differently, his walk rate has more than doubled year-over-year from 6.1% to 13.3%, representing a dramatic jump.

Perhaps not surprisingly, Stott has been more selective with his approach, swinging at fewer pitches. He currently sports a career-low 41.3% swing rate, down from his 44.2% career average.

A lower swing rate does not always equate to more offensive production — aggressive in-zone approaches can net better results. That said, he’s swinging at fewer pitches outside the zone. After offering at 32.3% pitches outside the zone last season, he’s down to 28.7% through 37 games played.

Hitters get hot, and it’s fun to get carried away with numbers and projections, but if Stott holds his current walk-rate, we’re talking about a significant lift in his offensive upside.

• Cristopher Sanchez didn’t put together his best start Monday night (5 2/3 IP, 7 H, 3 ER, 3 BB, 5 K), but it was an important one. With the Mets leading 3-1 in the third inning, a run already across and the game teetering on the brink of disaster, Sanchez averted further damage with an incredible nine-pitch sequence that produced three consecutive strikeouts.

• Without question, you always want to see a pitcher have his best stuff, let it rip and shift into cruise control, but that wasn’t the case for Sanchez in this one. However, he “stayed in the fight,” as Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham tweeted after the game. In doing so, he showed considerable poise that should only build his confidence moving forward.

• Edmundo Sosa has delivered for the Phillies in Trea Turner’s absence. In 10 games this month, Sosa is hitting .310 with two doubles and two triples while posting a .946 OPS. His contributions are a big reason why the Phillies are 7-2 in nine games without Turner.

• Zack Wheeler allowed seven earned runs to the Marlins in 24 2/3 IP last season (including playoffs). He allowed six earned runs in four innings to the Marlins over the weekend. It was an unexpected result against MLB’s 27th-ranked scoring offense, especially considering he came into the game having allowed a grand total of one earned run over his previous four starts (25 1/3 IP).

• Nick Castellanos is slowly making his way back to respectability. He entered play on May 3 with a miserable .180 BA and .489 OPS but a 10-for-35 (.286 BA) stretch that includes three doubles and two homers has his average up to .204 and OPS up nearly 100 percentage points to .585. The guess here is he finishes hitting around .250 with 22 homers and an OPS in the neighborhood of .720. Given his disastrous start, the Phillies would probably take that in a heartbeat.

• Entering May, the Phillies bullpen held a 5.42 ERA. Only the Rockies and Angels had worse bullpen ERAs. May has brought vastly different results with Phillies relievers pitching to a 1.73 ERA. That’s good for MLB’s third-best mark. They’ve held opposing hitters to a .197 BA while producing a 1.05 WHIP. Even with some early struggles, Phillies relievers have accumulated the third-most WAR, per FanGraphs.

3)🤦 Tweet of the Day: Come on, Man

I’m all for some Mets ineptitude, just as long as it doesn’t almost concuss an opponent.

4)📊 Poll Question: 103 Wins or Better?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll [How Would You Handle the Rotation?]:

Your replies…

"My only worry is that Turnbull's ceiling is higher than Walker and anything that gets him out of rhythm could hurt that.... But then, having 6 legit horses is such an intriguing issue to deal with.... I have a hard time getting worked up about it especially with #DaveDom as GM, I will trust the process.”

“Stick with your best 5 pitchers for the rotation. Turnbull is one of those 5. I heard arguments about having right/left balance in the bullpen. I get that, but you need to put your best foot forward each game. Turnbull is allowing that.”

“After last year with Strahm’s arm falling off, keeping Turnbull in the bullpen is the right move. He’ll be needed later this year.”

…

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🚑 J.T. Realmuto took some swings in the cage this morning, but Rob Thomson is unsure when the catcher will return.

• 🗓️ The Phillies can win their 30th game of the season today. Here’s a look at when they’ve done it in recent years.

• 🏁 Starting fast has helped fuel the Phillies’ recent success.

• 🙄 The crazy Mets fan guy at Barstool had another over-the-top, scripted meltdown after last night’s game. If you want to see fake outrage, hear a barrage of “swear words” and maybe have a cheap laugh or two, check it out.

• 😀 The Phillies have a nice winning percentage. Yes, I am a child.

• 🎧 Listen to the latest episode of Crossed Up: A Phillies Podcast.

The newsletter today was written by Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!