🛎️ Calling the Shots: Phillies' Power Shows Signs of Life

_{LAST GAME: Phillies 5 - Pirates 1}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez, 4.82 ERA) vs. Pirates (Bailey Falter, 5.40 ERA) | Today, 6.40 p.m. EDT | NCBSP+, 94 WIP}

Good afternoon. Thanks to a 4-2 road trip and a series-opening 5-1 win over the Pirates last night, the Phillies are over .500 for the first time this season. Last year, the Phillies didn’t get on the plus side of .500 until their 27th game of season. Cristopher Sanchez will try to keep the Phils’ outstanding run of starting pitching rolling tonight in front of a rested bullpen as the controversial City Connect jerseys debut.

In the email today:

Prior to last night’s series opener with the Pirates, WIP’s Howard Eskin (for the 241st time) pressed Rob Thomson about the Phillies’ home run dependency, and, by extension, the current construction of the lineup. Howard longs for speed up top and and a slap hitter in the two-hole to poke the ball through the right side on a hit-and-run. No matter how many times Howard asks, that’s probably not going to happen. Not with this team.

Still, his line of questioning isn’t entirely ridiculous given the offense entered the night generating just 0.92 home runs per game (tied for 19th) and a .342 slugging percentage (24th), especially for a team that saw its slug vanish over two games with a World Series trip on the line last October.

It’s not like the numbers look all that much better this morning, but after plating five runs on the strength of three homers, Thomson’s proclamation that the Phillies will slug looks good — at least for one day.

Alec Bohm’s fifth-inning 407-foot solo shot broke up a streak of 19 singles between extra-base hits before Brandon Marsh and Bryson Stott added blasts of their own later on. A five-run night hardly qualifies as an offensive explosion, but it was a nice first step for an offense that still lags well beyond some lofty expectations.

Here’s a look at a few key offensive stats and trends heading into the weekend:

• The Phillies have generated just 3.85 runs per game (21st).

• They possess a .233 team batting average (19th), .665 OPS (21st) and .354 slugging percentage (21st). Their 1.08 home runs per game ranks 15th.

• Only seven teams have struck out at a higher rate than the Phillies (25.4%), but only seven teams have a higher walk rate (10%).

• The Phillies have 13 steals (7th) but have been caught stealing six times (worst in MLB). According to FanGraphs, the Phillies have been baseball’s third-worst team on the base paths this season at -2 base running runs above average.

Our take: There’s no question this offense has been mostly underwhelming through 13 games. The Phillies currently have four prominent players hitting below .200 (Bryce Harper, Nick Castellanos, Whit Merrifield and Johan Rojas), while only Brandon Marsh (.998) possesses an OPS north of .800.

Still, I’d be surprised if the Phillies don’t ultimately finish among the top seven or eight teams in categories like home runs and slugging percentage. You figure Harper won’t stay down for long, Stott has more to give and quiet starts on the power front up top between Kyle Schwarber and Trea Turner will pick up at some point. I’ll take the optimistic longview on this one.

As for Howard, he remains unimpressed. I, for one, am stunned.

2) 📓 Observations, News and Notes

As the week moves along, I keep track of some thoughts and observations as well as try to identify some interesting current trends. Once Friday rolls around, I bestow this knowledge upon you along with some other news and notes you might have missed heading into the weekend. Behold…

• The Phillies 5.24 bullpen ERA ranks 25th in MLB. That number isn’t indicative of the unit’s overall performance, and I expect to see it adjust soon. Phillies relievers own a top-10 K%, K-BB%, FIP, and are fourth overall in fWAR. There have been some early hiccups, but they’ve mostly done the job.

• Also promising is the impending return of Orion Kerkering. He needed only 11 pitches to strike out the side in a rehab appearance with Clearwater Thursday night. His fastball topped out at 98.1 mph.

• How about the resurgence of Yunior Marte? After posting a 5.03 ERA over 40 appearances last season, Marte has yet to allow a run in six games this season. Opponents are hitting just .095 against him. He has a 0.60 WHIP. Suddenly, the Phillies have a deep mix of intriguing right-handed bullpen arms.

• Taijuan Walker appeared in a rehab start for Clearwater last night. He went four innings, allowed a pair of earned runs, struck out four and walked none. His fastball velo maxed-out at 91.9 mph.

• It’s been a season of streaks for Bryce Harper. After going 0-for-11 over his first three games, he got back on track with a five-game hitting streak that saw him go 9-for-20, led by a three-homer game against the Reds on April 2. Harper, however, is hitless since the start of the St. Louis series, going 0-for-15 with three walks.

• Harper isn’t the only NL East superstar off to a slow start. Ronald Acuna Jr. is hitting just .233 with a .632 OPS. He has yet to homer in 43 ABs.

• While on the subject of the Braves, that pitching…woof. Atlanta sports a 5.01 team ERA (25th) thanks largely in part to a dreadful 5.43 ERA from the starting rotation.

3) 🎲 Tweet of the Day: Always Fade the Public

What a story here.

As you may know, Nick Castellanos has a history of homering during or after notorious moments. With the news of O.J. Simpson’s passing, many took to X to make jokes and read memes. Others took time to reflect on the significance of his murder trial, and some…some hopped on DraftKings and smashed the Castellanos homer prop. Unfortunately for those bettors, his homerless streak is now up to 46 at-bats to start the season.

4)📊 Poll Question: Who You Got?

A simple, straight up question for you today:

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response Monday.

…

Results from our last poll [What concerns you most?]:

Your replies…

• “All of the above. Sloppy. These mistakes and blunders should not happen with such an experienced team. Trea had his ovation last year, he shouldn't need that again - gotta figure it out quickly to keep the love of the fans in this town.”

• “Turner and Castellanos look lost at the plate. Rojas can’t hit but if those other two are hitting then it’s not as big of a deal. They just don’t seem to have any urgency and are gonna be 10 games back of the Braves by June.”

• “The baserunning mistakes are infuriating, but they were even worse last year. But Turner, it's not just all the strikeouts. It's not just the lack of production - those should rectify themselves eventually. It's the defense, man. It's borderline disastrous at this point. It makes you wonder what the Phillies end up doing with him in the future. He's going to play shortstop all year this year, but beyond that, do they consider a position change? And if so, what does that do to the rest of the roster?”

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup

• 💣How about Alec Bohm going deep on the two-year anniversary of I hate this place?

• 🎙️ Shout out to Tom McCarthy. He nailed this call on the final out.

• 🚨 2023 first-round pick Aidan Miller hit his first pro homer last night.

• 👕 If you like topical Phillies t-shirts, this one might be worth a look.

• 🤔 A dive into Bryson Stott’s early-season adjustments.

• ❓Some thoughts on the looming decision about what to do with Spencer Turnbull.

• 🤣 This tweet made me laugh.

The newsletter today was written by Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!