🔔 Can Cristopher Sánchez Sustain Early Success?

_{LAST GAME: Phillies 7 - Rockies 6}

_{NEXT GAME: White Sox (Garrett Crochet, 3.57 ERA) vs. Phillies (Spencer Turnbull, 1.80 ERA) | Today, 6:40 p.m. EDT | NCBSP, 94 WIP}

Good afternoon. The Phillies will open a three-game set tonight against a 3-15 White Sox squad that comes to town with an MLB-worst -54 run differential. Chicago sports baseball’s worst lineup by a wide margin, one producing just 2.11 runs per game. White Sox hitters are batting a league-worst .196 and are dead last with a .571 OPS. Look up any offensive category and Chicago is either last or close to it.

Meanwhile, the Phillies enter play this weekend riding their first three-game winning streak of the season and will look to improve to four games over .500 tonight, an accomplishment they didn’t achieve until their 72nd game last season.

What could possibly go wrong!

In the email today:

Take a quick look at Cristopher Sánchez's numbers through four starts and you will quickly conclude that he’s been damn good. Sánchez holds a 2.53 ERA and 1.31 WHIP with 25 strikeouts against eight walks.

While the early returns have been encouraging, a look beyond the standard numbers shows even more reason for optimism.

• There was some worry about the uptick in Sánchez’s velocity having an adverse impact on the effectiveness of his changeup. He is throwing harder this season. His average sinker velocity is up to 93.9 mph from 92.1 mph a season ago. His average changeup has jumped from 81.8 mph to 84.4 mph, and it’s working for him so far.

• Opponents are hitting and slugging .139 against his changeup this season with a .151 expected batting average and .178 expected slugging percentage.

• Sánchez continues to generate plenty of swing and miss on the changeup with a 38.6% whiff percentage.

• Overall, Sánchez is generating swings and misses at a higher rate this season. He currently sports a career-best 13.3% swinging strike percentage, up over his 2023 number of 11.6%.

• Notably, his slider has been a much more effective pitch this season. After opponents posted a .250 BA and .456 SLG% in 2023, those numbers have plummeted to a .125 BA and .125 SLG% through four starts.

Our take: Opposing hitters have had some success against Sánchez’s sinker this month, hitting .406 with a .531 SLG% against it, but he has been able to work around that damage because of his offspeed stuff. Against a brutal Colorado lineup, he threw first-pitch strikes at a 75% clip and generated nine whiffs on 22 swings with what has become a devastating changeup.

Sánchez may not enter the Cy Young conversation any time soon, but his pitch arsenal has evolved enough to believe he can continue to provide the Phillies with consistently above average starts.

2)📓 News, Notes and Observations

• Trea Turner has hit safely in all seven games of the Phillies’ current homestand. He’s gone 12-for-29 (.414 BA) with two homers and four doubles. In the process, Turner has lifted his batting average from .277 to .329 and his OPS from .665 to .872. Not that the sky was ever falling, but after a sluggish first two weeks, he’s quickly put to rest any early concerns about his offensive production.

• Speaking of concerns, it’s hard not to be concerned with what we’re seeing from Nick Castellanos. He’s hitting .159 with a .227 on-base percentage and has yet to record an extra-base hit in 69 at-bats — not nice. Not at all. In fact, one season after collecting 68 extra-base hits, Castellanos is currently the only qualified MLB hitter yet to record an XBH this season.

• Kyle Schwarber has gotten off to a solid start. After his two-homer game Wednesday night, he is on pace for a 43-homer season. I personally have no issue with Schwarber in the leadoff spot, but I’ll throw the haters a bone here. Despite tracking another big-time power season, Schwarber is on pace for just 77 RBI.

• The Phillies have struggled defensively through 19 games, but Bryce Harper has been outstanding at first base. Per FanGraphs, he’s second among first basemen with four defensive runs saved. He’s second in Statcast’s FRV (fielding run value in runs above average).

• Ranger Suarez through four starts in 2023: 7.13 ERA. Suarez through four starts in 2024: 1.73 ERA.

• After a 1-for-22 start to his season, Johan Rojas has used an 8-for-23 stretch to get his batting average up to .200. He’s produced some better contact in recent games, too. On Wednesday night, he recorded a 102.3 mph single and 99.3 mph double.

• How about the run Scott Kingery is on right now? The 29-year-old has homered five times over his last six games with Lehigh Valley. In 10 games this month, Kingery is hitting .333 with an .806 OPS.

3)😮 Tweet of the Day: Pitch of the Day

Above, I noted the overall effectiveness/nastiness of Cristopher Sánchez’s changeup.

It’s no longer a secret around the sport. Baseball Prospectus highlighted it as “The Pitch of the Day” for Wednesday’s action:

4)📊 Poll Question: A Right Field Problem?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response Monday.

…

Results from our last poll [Are you concerned about Bryce Harper’s start?]:

Your replies…

"Is Bryce Harper tanking because he's upset he didn't get his contract extended. I think so. We're rocking all the calls at 215...."

“I say this with the caveat that I do think he will be fine. What is most alarming to me about Bryce is his lack of running hard. He is a red light player and busts his ass at all facets of the game. He has not been running out balls hit to infielders and gets doubled up regularly. He is not trying to beat it out and Thomson fluffs it off. Is his back more of a concern than anyone is letting on? This is not the Harper we have seen doing everything he can to get on base. ”

“Seriously? Dude will be ok.”

…

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🏆 The Phillies have the National League’s best starting rotation right now.

• 💣 Could Kyle Schwarber make a run at 500 homers?

• 📈 No. 3 Phillies prospect Aidan Miller is red-hot for Clearwater.

• 🤷‍♂️ Get excited. Taijuan Walker could be pitching for the Phillies next week.

• 😬 The Phillies have a tough matchup against 24-year-old lefty Garrett Crochet tonight.

The newsletter today was written by Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!