🔔 Can't Blame the Weather This Time

_{LAST GAME: Pirates 9 - Phillies 2}

_{NEXT GAME: Rockies (Cal Quantrill, 7.20 ERA) vs. Phillies (Aaron Nola, 4.50 ERA) | Today, 6.40 p.m. EDT | NCBSP, 94 WIP}

Good morning. The Phillies could manage only a split against the Pirates over the weekend, and in some ways, they were lucky to do that. Sloppy defense, free bases gifted everywhere, and a whopping 13 runs over four games made for a tough watch throughout.

They will now try to break from their seemingly magnetic pull to the .500 mark when they host the absolutely dreadful Rockies and White Sox (sporting a combined 6-25 record) for six games this week.

In the email today:

While it may not be “hittin’ season” quite yet, the Phillies finally received the benefit of some decent weather over the weekend. No “playable windows,” steady rain showers, or temps in the 40s-50s, but the improved weather failed to result in an improved offensive output over the final three games against Pittsburgh.

After swatting three homers in the opener, the Phillies managed only seven total runs and six extra-base hits over the final three games. They went just 5-for-21 with runners in scoring position.

The result? The Phillies are treading water at 8-8 this morning, but they wake up with the National League’s worst scoring offense. The Phillies’ 3.63 runs per game is better than only four American League squads (Twins, Mariners, A’s, and White Sox).

The combined record of those four teams? That would be 21-40.

At the heart of the Phillies’ recent offensive struggles is Bryce Harper. He is really going through it right now. Is it an injury thing? Is it a timing thing? Or…is it just a matter of time before he breaks out?

• Whatever the case, Harper currently sports a .190 batting average. That’s the same exact average as oft-criticized Nick Castellanos and a tick (literally one tick) better than Johan Rojas’ .189 BA. Harper, who has failed to homer in 14 of his 15 games played, is 2-for-27 (.074 BA) with a .305 OPS over his last seven games.

• Particularly problematic is that Harper is just 2-for-25 (.080 BA) with runners on and 2-for-14 (.143 BA) with RISP.

• Noting that it’s still very early, Harper’s plate discipline and batted ball profiles are a bit down but don’t skew drastically from his three-year averages — with the exception of his barrel percentage (which currently stands at a career-worst 7.1%). He’s offering at pitches outside the zone a bit more so far this season, which helps explain a small uptick in K% and decrease in BB%.

• His 16.7% line drive percentage is down from from 24.9% last season, while his 42.9% fly ball percentage is notably higher than anything we’ve seen in recent years. As you’ve likely noticed, the Phillies haven’t exactly been playing in the type of weather in which fly balls are going to carry much. We saw a few fall short of the fence over the weekend.

Our take: From this perspective, Harper looks like a guy who is still struggling to find his timing. In turn, poor results have amped up frustration, leading to some impatience. That hurts his typically strong pitch recognition and selection skills. Said another way, Harper looks like a guy who is trying to do too much. Barring the existence of a problematic injury, a Harper rebound feels like a good bet.

2) 📓 Weekend Observations, News and Notes

• Not only are the Phillies 0-4 in Zack Wheeler starts, they’ve been outscored 25-6.

• At -13 runs, the Phillies have the National League’s fourth-worst run-differential. They’re -19 in Wheeler’s starts and +6 in their 12 other games, but it’s not on the Phils’ ace. They have scored 1.5 runs per game when Wheeler takes the ball.

• You may have heard yesterday that Kyle Schwarber was the first Phillies left-handed hitter to reach base five times in a game, all against LHP, since Richie Ashburn on July 26, 1958 (h/t Phillies Comms Department).

• Staying on this for a moment, Schwarber’s early numbers against left-handed pitching have been crazy good. He’s hitting .433 with a 1.161 OPS against LHP. This comes a year after he hit .188 with a .758 OPS against them.

• Almost as surprising, however, has been his early struggles against RHP. He’s hitting .063 with a .299 OPS against righties. Last season, he only hit .201 but posted a stellar .849 OPS against them.

• Much has been made about the Phillies’ defensive improvements this season, but it sure hasn’t translated yet. At -4 defensive runs saved, they rank 23rd in MLB.

• By the way, what a sloppy weekend of baseball. J.T. Realmuto deserves some grace given the beating he has taken, but he had a tough game behind the plate Sunday.

• The Phillies are just one of 10 teams that have produced negative defensive runs saved from their catchers so far. Their three passed balls are tied for MLB’s most.

• If you combine passed balls and wild pitches, only two teams have allowed more free bases on pitch execution. This needs to get cleaned up.

• You saw the essence of Seranthony Dominguez in the sixth inning yesterday: Strikeout on a 99 mph fastball, strikeout on a decent slider, solo home run on a hanging slider, strikeout on a 99 mph fastball. He has to find more pitch-to-pitch consistency — and there’s work to do with the breaking stuff.

• With three hits Sunday, including his first homer of the season, Trea Turner jumped his average from .271 to .302 and lifted his OPS from .671 to .768.

• If it feels like the Phillies are hitting into a ton of double plays, that’s because they are. With 16 GIDPs, only three teams have more.

3) ☀️ Tweet of the Day: It’s Always Sunny in Philadelphia?

Lovely.

4)📊 Poll Question: Are You Worried About Bryce Harper’s Start?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response Friday.

…

Results from our last poll [Who or what concerns you most through nine games?]:

Your replies…

• “All of the above. Sloppy. These mistakes and blunders should not happen with such an experienced team. Trea had his ovation last year, he shouldn't need that again - gotta figure it out quickly to keep the love of the fans in this town.”

• “Nick looks absolutely LOST at the plate and in the field. Trea had doubles in back to back games, almost hit a HR to tie it on Sunday. You gotta think his fielding will get better, at least league average. Why would anybody throw Nick a fastball?”

• “Lack of situational hitting, chasing and other basic areas of plate discipline that have haunted this team in the playoffs.”

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 😁 Here’s the story behind the Nick Castellanos “Happy people hit better” line.

• 😳 Charlie Blackmon will be in town with the Rockies this week. He absolutely crushes the Phillies.

• 🙏 Andrew McCutchen hit his 300th career home run yesterday. He had some nice things to say about Phillies fans.

• 📈 Orion Kerkering made his season debut. How good can he actually be?

• 💰 Charlie Manuel is investing in youth baseball. Good story from Matt Breen here.

The newsletter today was written by Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!