🔔 It All Comes Down to Tonight

_{LAST GAME: DIAMONDBACKS 5 - PHILLIES 1}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Ranger Suarez) vs. Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt) | Today, 8:07 EDT | TBS, 94 WIP}

Good morning. With a chance to advance to the World Series last night, the Phillies had nothing for the Diamondbacks. I'll give them the benefit of the doubt. I’m sure they were locked in and ready to go, but they played like a team that expected to simply show up and ride the energy of Citizens Bank Park to a win. Aaron Nola wasn’t sharp. The offense missed on some chances early before failing to generate any late. It was a stunning result given what was at stake.

Phils in 7?

In the email today:

The Phillies will play their first Game 7 in franchise history tonight because they failed to show up in Game 6. In a game that lasted just over 3 hours, it felt like the Phillies had a chance to win this one for a total of 10 minutes.

Let’s get to some Game 6 observations.

• The Phillies let Merrill Kelly off the hook early. In the 1st inning, Alec Bohm came to plate with 2 on and 1 out. Kelly had started the game by throwing 9 of his first 13 pitches out of the strike zone. It would have been 10 of 14 had Bohm not chased a slider well out of the zone. A pitch later, he was back to the dugout after taking a called third strike. He had two hits later, but that was a bad at-bat in a big spot early.

• The Phillies were 1-for-7 with RISP through 3 innings. They didn’t take a single AB with a RISP the rest of the night. That was particularly stunning given they ran up Kelly’s pitch count early and Arizona isn’t exactly known for its lights-out bullpen.

• The Phillies had been 6-0 at home this postseason and 5-0 in closeout games dating back to the start of the 2022 playoffs. So much for trends.

• Aaron Nola surrendered more runs in the 2nd inning last night (3) than he had in his previous 3 postseason starts combined (2).

• If the Phillies fail to advance, last night might have marked the last time we see Aaron Nola in a Phillies uniform. He’ll never be universally accepted as a top of the rotation starter here, but he’s viewed as one across the game. There have been disappointments, including last night, but he also delivered in some huge spots for the Phillies through their two postseason runs.

• Since the start of Game 2, Nick Castellanos is 0-for-16 with 8 strikeouts. During the same time, Trea Turner is 3-for-17 with 4 strikeouts. Bohm protecting Harper remains a hot topic (rightfully so), but the Phillies need more than 3-for-33 and 12 strikeouts from these two guys.

• The Phillies went 2-for-17 with 9 strikeouts against tonight’s starter Brandon Pfaadt in Game 3. A grand total of 1 Phillie reached second base against him over 6 innings. After the game, some players and Rob Thomson referenced the challenge of having not previously faced Pfaadt. They better find some adjustments ahead of tonight.

• There has been much criticism of Thomson for repeatedly going to Kimbrel and Orion Kerkering in this series. The results haven’t been good, so that’s fair. But it’s also worth considering why he’s had to do so. The Phillies made one pitching addition before the trade deadline. That addition, Michael Lorenzen, has made all of two appearances this postseason and is clearly not considered a viable option in medium to high leverage spots. That said, he actually did a nice job last night. Go figure.

• At DraftKings, the Phillies are a -175 favorite tonight. Kyle Schwarber is -125 to win NLCS MVP. If you’re a pessimist, Ketel Marte at +340 looks like good value.

2)📣 Let’s Talk About the Fans

The crowds at Citizens Bank Park have been a major part of the Phillies’ postseason narrative. They’ve shown up loud, supportive and relentless.

Last night felt more like a sold out game in mid-July. Some thoughts on that.

• The Phillies have done a great job of keeping the fans engaged this postseason. They entered the night having scored first in 4 of 6 playoff games at Citizens Bank Park. They also had not trailed by multiple runs at home this postseason. That changed last night after the Diamondbacks got to Nola for 3 runs in the second inning.

• Despite the early deficit, I thought the crowd remained pretty juiced up through the first few innings. As the game progressed, however, it was a tight stadium that looked and felt nothing like what we had seen throughout the month.

• The 5:07 pm start time is junior varsity stuff. It’s a start time that is not representative of the moment and what’s at stake. There has also been a noticeable difference in the pregame energy between the 5p and 8p start times.🍺

• If you’re the Phillies in-stadium experience people, I guess you still have to play Welcome to the Jungle and do the light show thing for Craig Kimbrel, unless he says otherwise. At first, I was surprised to see it, but you’re sort of showing him up if you make a change. It was still pretty awkward though. Needless to say, the fans were less than enthused.

• Of course, Kimbrel should have told them to kill it. It was sort of embarrassing.

Our take: With the Phillies scuffling for most of the night, it’s more than understandable that the fans didn’t have the same energy. But the ones who left early? Weak.

3) Tweet of the Day: Clap Your Hands Everybody

4)📊 Poll: Will the Phillies Bounce Back in Game 7?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 📚 It wasn’t a storybook Game 6 for Aaron Nola.

• 😧 How will the Phillies respond to the weight of a Game 7?

• 💪🏻 Marcus Hayes writes that we will find out if the Phillies truly have marbles.

• ⚾️ Zac Gallen and Zack Wheeler will be ready to go tonight.

• 🎶 Famous Philadelphians pick what their walkup music would be if they played for the Phillies.

• 📝 Here’s a stat that will provide some comfort.

• 🙄 Rob Thomson says he won’t change his lineup. Is this a better one?

• 😌 Nick Castellanos says Ranger Suarez is the right guy for Game 7.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!