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šŸ”” Game 1 Observations: A Total Team Effort

+ Numbers Suggest Offense in Game 2

LAST GAME: PHILLIES 4 - MARLINS 1

NEXT GAME: Phillies (Aaron Nola) vs. Marlins (Braxton Garrett)

Today, 8:08 EDT | ESPN, 94 WIP

Good morning. In front of an aggressively loud Citizens Bank Park, the Phillies met the moment in their 4-1 Game 1 victory over the Marlins. It was a total team effort.

Zack Wheeler (6 2/3 IP, 5 H, 1 ER, 8K, 0 BB) took apart a Marlins lineup that didn’t even get a runner into scoring position until the 7th inning. Every Phillies starting position player recorded at least one hit, the bullpen recorded the final 7 outs, and everybody thought (incorrectly) that Nick Castellanos flipped off his teammates while standing at second base.

In the email today:

  1. šŸ‘€ Game 1 Observations

  2. šŸ‘ What You Need to Know Ahead of Game 2

  3. šŸ–•ā“Tweet of the Day: All Castellanos, All the Time

  4. šŸ“Š Poll: What Do You Expect From Aaron Nola Tonight?

  5. šŸ”— Link Roundup

1)šŸ‘€ Game 1 Observations: A Total Team Effort

We’ll get to the observations in a second, but the biggest Game 1 takeaway?

The Phillies looked dialed in.

Last season, they were underdogs. This season, there are great expectations. I wondered heading into this series if they might play tight or try to do too much. Nope. It just doesn’t seem like the outside noise or pressure of the moment matters to this team. They want to win and they know how to win.

What you saw last night was a total team effort from a group that is hell-bent on getting back to the World Series…and getting a ring:

Here’s what stood out:

  • Zack Wheeler wasn’t going to let the Phillies lose. After the game, Wheeler credited the energy of Citizens Bank Park for the extra life on his stuff. Whatever the cause, he was nasty. He generated 18 whiffs on 50 Miami swings, including 8 on 12 swings against his sweeper. He retired the side, in order, in five of the first six innings. In 42 1/3 career postseason innings, he has a 2.55 ERA and 0.73 WHIP. You’re watching greatness.

  • The Phillies let Marlins starter Jesus Luzardo off the hook in the first inning and began the night 0-for-5 w/ RISP. Enter Alec Bohm, who got things rolling with a key two-out RBI single in the 3rd inning. Fitting. Bohm hit .344 w/ RISP and .321 w/ RISP and 2 outs during the regular season. That hit changed the entire feel of the game.

  • Can’t say enough about the fans at Citizens Bank Park in October. If you haven’t been down there, you probably wonder if the hype over the atmosphere is real. It is. I’m willing to wager the Phillies training and field staff received louder cheers during the pregame intros than any Marlins player did at any point this season.

  • Rob Thomson pressed the right button by starting Cristian Pache in left last night. Pache tracked down a sinking liner off the bat of Luis Arraez that had a 74% chance of being a hit to secure the first out of the night. Later, he contributed a key RBI single in the 4th inning that extended the Phils’ lead.

  • Not Dusty Wathan’s best night. He made 3 questionable decisions. I didn’t hate the 1st inning hold on Kyle Schwarber, especially with Luzardo struggling to find it early. For the same reason, I hated his 4th inning send of Castellanos. That gamble helped the Marlins survive what could have been a huge outburst. But his most egregious miss of the night came when he tried to hold Bryce Harper in the 8th. I have no idea what he was looking at — Harper scored easily.

2)šŸ‘ What to Know Before Game 2

Game 1 was a good start for the Phillies, but there is still plenty of work to do. A win tonight sets up the long-awaited NLDS rematch between the Phillies and Braves.

Here’s what to look for as we turn the page to Game 2:

  • Marlins starter Braxton Garrett was strong down the stretch. In 4 September starts, he posted a 2.29 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .205 batting average. He also had a 2.85 ERA in 15 road starts this season.

  • Last night, 8 of the Phillies’ 11 hits came from right-handed hitters. They might need to carry the load again tonight. Garrett held LHH to a .211 BA and .600 OPS this season, while RHH posted a .261 BA and .749 OPS.

  • In 2 starts against the Phillies this season, Garrett has a 5.00 ERA while allowing 12 hits and 2 walks over 10 IP.

  • A number of Phillies hitters have had considerable success against Garrett, albeit in a small sample: Trea Turner (2-for-6, 2 HR), Bohm (5-for-9, HR), Harper (3-for-9, 2 2B), and J.T. Realmuto (3-for-7, 2B, HR) stand out.

  • In 3 starts against Miami this season, Aaron Nola has a 6.75 ERA while Miami hitters have batted a collective .333 with a 1.000 OPS. In 16 IP, he yielded a total of 24 hits and 5 homers. Woof.

Our take: Garrett is a solid arm, but the Phillies have had success against him. Nola, meanwhile, has been dreadful against the Marlins this season. The playoffs are a different beast than a regular season game, but based on the numbers above, we could see some offense tonight.

3)šŸ–•ā“ Tweet(s) of the Day: A Night with Nick Castellanos

4) šŸ“Š Poll: What Do You Expect From Aaron Nola Tonight?

What do you expect from Aaron Nola tonight?

Choose an option below.

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Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll: What do you consider a successful season?

Your replies…

ā€œPlayoffs are such a crapshoot but have to win 2 of 3 at home against the Marlins to prove you’re at least 2nd best the division, let alone the NL.ā€

ā€œI WANT to be proven wrong but I don’t see the Phillies beating the Braves a second time. Braves also have the ā€œunfinished businessā€ chip on the shoulder like the Phillies. But it’s on the shoulder of an all-time offense.ā€

ā€œLast season I just wanted the playoffs. This season I wanted improvement and got it, but I won’t melt if they lose to the Braves in the DS. Next season, I want that NL East Division title.ā€

5) šŸ”— Link Roundup:

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!