🔔 Game 2 NLDS Preview

_{LAST GAME: PHILLIES 3 - BRAVES 0}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Zack Wheeler) vs. Braves (Max Fried)}

_{Today, 6:07 EDT | TBS, 94 WIP}

Good morning. Following the Phillies’ stunning Game 1 win in Atlanta on Saturday night, they now have an opportunity to put a death grip on the series. One thing is for sure, they will have the guy they want on the mound in Zack Wheeler, who owns a 2.55 ERA and 0.73 WHIP in 7 career postseason starts.

A win tonight and the series shifts back to South Philly this week with the baseball team, its fans, and an entire city absolutely on fire.

Imagine that scene.

In the email today:

As you probably know by now, the Phillies have been simply outstanding in Game 1s in their recent postseason history. The run extends back to the Utley-Howard-Rollins teams, but more recently, the Phillies are 6-0 in Game 1s since the start of the 2022 postseason.

Their Game 2 results, however, have been mixed. They enter tonight 2-3 in Game 2s since last October. While the Phillies were happy to follow the same NLDS Game 1 script as a season ago, they’ll look to break form from last year’s Game 2 script in which they wasted a stellar Zack Wheeler start and allowed Atlanta to even the series.

Here’s what to know ahead of first pitch.

• In 3 starts against the Braves this season, Wheeler went 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA. Over 19 innings, he struck out 21 Braves while holding them to a .186 batting average.

• Current Atlanta hitters hold a combined career .217 BA and .661 OPS against Wheeler. Ronald Acuna Jr. (12-for-46, 4 HR, .900 OPS) has found success, but few other Braves can say the same. In particular, Ozzie Albies (7-for-44) and Marcell Ozuna (9-for-47) have struggled.

• Atlanta starter Max Fried hasn’t appeared in a game in 18 days. He’s been sidelined with a blistered finger. Reports indicate he’s good to go, so he will look for better results than his NLDS performance of a season ago. In that one, he failed to survive the 4th inning after the Phillies knocked him around for six runs.

• Fried’s only start against the Phillies this season came last month at CBP when he allowed 1 ER over 5 IP.

• Current Phillies hitters have excellent combined career numbers against him, posting a .299 BA and .844 OPS. Most notably, Nick Castellanos (8-for-13, 1 HR, 1.538 OPS), Bryce Harper (9-for-30, 2 HR), J.T. Realmuto (10-for-24, 1.024 OPS) and Trea Turner (14-for-35, 1.004 OPS) have lit him up.

• Fried has been OK at Truist Park this season, but he has fared much better away from home. In 5 home starts, he pitched to a 3.86 ERA with a 1.42 WHIP while opponents hit .291 against him.

Our take: Fried remains one of the game’s best pitchers, but the Phillies have to feel pretty damn good about this matchup tonight.

In almost any other situation, I would bank on a big bounce back from the Atlanta lineup. There’s just one problem: Zack Wheeler. Everyone (myself included) wants to talk about Atlanta's historically good lineup, well guess what? Wheeler himself has been historically good:

2)🎲 Never Tell Me The Odds (Unless They’re Good)

Prior to Game 1, the Phillies were a +145 underdog to win their NLDS matchup with the Braves. Following their win in the opener, they promptly shifted to a -170 favorite. Using the implied probability of those betting markets, the Phillies went from holding a 40.82 % chance of winning the series to a 62.96% chance.

Meanwhile:

• The Phillies woke up this morning with the best odds of winning the World Series at 18.6%, per FanGraphs:

• The Phillies hold the 2nd best odds of any remaining team to win it all at sportsbooks like DraftKings and FanDuel. The Rangers lead the way, thanks in part to their current 2-0 series lead over the Orioles.

Our take: Even with a loss tonight, it’s not difficult to imagine a scenario in which the Phillies bring this thing back to Philly and take charge of the series. With a win tonight, however, the Phillies become the prohibitive favorite to win it all.

3) 😴 Tweet of the Day: Any Advantage We Can Get

There will be no tears shed for the Braves. In a potential 5-game series, they will have the luxury of throwing both Spencer Strider and Max Fried twice. Still, there has been a lot of noise whining about the prolonged postseason layoffs for top teams.

Atlanta looked out of sorts the other night, so what does another down day do to them? Meanwhile, the Phillies can throw their best punch tonight with Wheeler and a fully-rested bullpen that should be brimming with confidence after a dynamic Game 1 effort.

4) 📊 Poll: Do The Phillies Come Home Up 2-0?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll (Do the Phillies come out hot and steal Game 1?):

Your replies…

“The Phillies are going to win Game 1. The Braves have not played a game in almost a week while the Phillies have played meaningful baseball. This works in the Phillies' favor big time. The Phillies got to Strider for 8 hits the only time they faced him at Truist this year. The moment is going to get to Strider and the Phillies will come through. We know that Ranger has pitched well down the stretch and is Mr. Clutch in the playoffs. LET'S GO PHILLIES!!!!”

“Philadelphia passion means not giving up and not giving in to negativity. The Boys have spent all year preparing for this. They’re ready. ”

“I’m willing to concede a loss in the Strider start in G1. But the Phillies will have the better starter in G2, and that is the game you absolutely have to win. Come back to PHI with a split and go from there. ”

…

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🥒 Can pickle juice help heal blisters? Max Fried has heard it all.

• 🪦 3 reasons why the Phillies may already have buried the Braves.

• 👨‍🏫 A look back at Rob Thomson’s Game 1 masterclass.

• 🔙 Here is every hit of the Phillies’ postseason run so far.

• ❤️ Orion Kerkering is already one of the guys.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!