🔔 Game 3 Observations: We Have a Series

_{LAST GAME: DIAMONDBACKS 2 - PHILLIES 1}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez) vs. Diamondbacks (Joe Mantiply) | Today, 8:07 EDT | TBS, 94 WIP}

Good morning. I guess it’s a series now. After a loss that felt inevitable, yet entirely avoidable, the Phillies will look to regroup tonight when they send Cristopher Sanchez to the mound opposite Joe Mantiply and a slew of Diamondbacks relievers. To do it, they will need to muster more than 3 hits.

And really, that’s what Game 3 came down to. Sure, there were some decisions to second guess. (And we will!) There was also that less-than-inspiring 9th inning by Craig Kimbrel, but a Phillies team that entered last night with a .941 postseason OPS had just 2 baserunners through the first 6 innings.

That’s not gonna get it done.

In the email today:

I’m sure you’re excited this morning to rehash the unfortunate events of a supremely frustrating loss, so let me inject some positivity into the mix before we do so.

If you asked me to pick one word to describe the Phillies dating back to June of last season, it would be, without question, resilient. Following their NLDS Game 2 loss to the Braves, Nick Castellanos talked about how well the Phillies respond to getting punched in the mouth. They then went out and proved it.

This team has a unique ability to quickly flush, uh, shitty performances, and there’s no reason to think they won’t do it again this weekend.

That said…

• Brandon Pfaadt had pitched better down the stretch and was stellar in his first 2 postseason outings, but what he did against the Phillies was stunning. Yesterday morning, it would have been tough to imagine that any pitcher could stop the Phillies right now, let alone a 25-year-old rookie who carried a 5.72 ERA into the postseason.

• Pfaadt averaged 93.7 mph with his fastball, but it played like 96-97 mph, generating 9 whiffs on 18 swings. His effectiveness with the fastball was particularly stunning given that opponents hit .325 against it with a .650 SLG% during the regular season.

• At the time, it seemed insane Diamondbacks manager Torey Lovullo pulled Pfaadt with two away in the 6th inning, but the numbers supported the move. Opposing hitters were 27-for-68 (.397 BA) against him his 3rd time through the lineup this season.

• I thought one of the overlooked killer moments for the Phillies came in the lone inning in which they scored. With runners on 1st and 2nd and nobody out, Bryson Stott worked ahead of reliever Ryan Thompson in a 3-1 count. Stott felt poised to walk, or perhaps hook a pitch into right field to potentially set up a big inning. Instead, he rolled into a 6-3 double play. The Phillies’ win probability decreased by 15.7% following the at-bat.

• A more obvious and talked about tough moment came during Alec Bohm’s 9th inning at-bat with Bryce Harper on 2nd base. Looking for a certain pitch is one thing, taking two fastballs to instantly fall behind 0-2 is another. Bohm worked a few more pitches before taking yet another pitch in the zone for a called third strike. Forget the result, that’s not the type of approach you want to see in that situation.

• Bohm’s defense has been a huge boost for the Phillies, but Rob Thomson has something to think about with his current lineup construction. Harper saw exactly 1 pitch in the strike zone over 4 plate appearances. Makes sense — why would the Diamondbacks challenge Harper with how Bohm has swung the bat through 9 postseason games?

• Incredible performance by Ranger Suarez, and from this perspective, wasting 5 1/3 scoreless innings is the toughest part of the loss. Had you told me he would go out and give that type of effort, I would have transferred a mortgage payment into the old DraftKings account.

• Suarez’s ability to bear down in the postseason is truly remarkable. In 3 games this month, he’s 1-0 with a 0.64 ERA and 0.64 WHIP. In 8 career postseason appearances, he’s 3-0 with 0.94 ERA and 0.84 WHIP. Before yesterday, the Phillies were 7-0 in postseason games Suarez pitched. Historical stuff.

• Thomson is catching a lot of heat about going to Orion Kerkering for the 7th inning. I get it. On the road, 1-run lead, NLCS — that’s a big spot for a 22-year-old who was making his 9th MLB appearance. Ultimately, I guess Thomson liked the idea of Kerkering against the threat of left-handed pinch-hitters opposed to Seranthony Dominguez. I had no problem with it, but I did have a problem with…

2) 😩 A Miserable Inning

It’s fair to question the Phillies’ decision to go with Craig Kimbrel in the 9th inning. They had a number of their better arms still out in the bullpen.

In this case, Thomson opted to trust the veteran reliever in a key spot, and Kimbrel burned them.

• What a disappointing sequence. Almost walks the leadoff hitter on a pitch clock violation. Then walks the leadoff hitter. Then fails to hold the runner at first. Then gives up a single before a defensive bailout. Another walk. Single. Ballgame. As bad as it gets.

• Why didn’t Thomson make a move after Trea Turner threw out Lourdes Gurriel Jr. at the plate? The play felt like a reprieve with an obvious opt-out. Ketel Marte is better against LHP, but given Kimbrel’s ongoing tightrope walks, I’m a bit surprised Thomson didn’t put Matt Strahm on Geraldo Perdomo and go from there.

Our take: No issue with going to Kimbrel in the 9th. He’s an experienced high-leverage arm that should succeed against that particular pocket of the Arizona lineup. The issue here is with his failure to execute and Thomson’s failure to pivot once it became obvious Kimbrel didn’t have the command to navigate the moment.

3)🤬 Tweet of the Day: At Least Dan Iassogna Won’t Be Behind the Plate Tonight

4) 📊 Poll: Will the Phillies Rebound in Game 4?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

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Results from our last poll (Does the NLCS return to Philadelphia next week?):

Your replies…

“It's the NLCS; they have to win a couple, right?”

“This AZ team looks beat and their lineup just isn't good enough to hang with the Phils' bats. I don't see them winning two, possibly not even one. This team feels like an unstoppable force!”

“After thoroughly dominating the Diamondbacks for 18 innings I find it hard to believe the Phillies lose twice to this team, especially with two bullpen games on the horizon. They're coming home from the desert with the pennant.”

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🙃 Some weird MLB Network content right here.

• 💪 Rob Thomson says the moment isn’t too big for Orion Kerkering.

• 😨 The Diamondbacks want no part of Bryce Harper.

• 👍 Brandon Marsh says the Phillies are on to Game 4.

• 💨 Marcus Hayes thinks Rob Thomson blew it last night.

• 👋 The Phillies have bounced back all season long.

• 🎵 Calum Scott is fired up for the Phillies.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!