🔔 You Hate to See It

_{LAST GAME: BRAVES 4 - PHILLIES 1}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Aaron Nola) vs. Cardinals (Zack Thompson)}

_{Friday, Sep 15, 8:15 EDT | Apple TV, 94 WIP}

Good morning. For about 15 minutes last night, it looked like the Phillies might have something working against Spencer Strider. The Braves starter needed 36 pitches to survive the first before proceeding to blow the doors off Phillies hitters for another six innings.

On the bright side, at least there wasn’t any late-inning gut-punches this time around. It’s nice to see the Phillies mix in a conventional, drama-free loss once in awhile, you know?

In the email today:

If the Phillies are serious about putting together the best possible postseason rotation, and they are actually evaluating this thing on merit, I’m not sure how they leave Cristopher Sánchez out of it. Not after 7 1/3 strong innings against a powerful Braves lineup in which he struck out a career-high 10 batters. Sánchez wasn’t perfect, especially early, but he made some adjustments as the game progressed.

• The Braves quickly took a 2-0 lead after just six pitches — all sinkers — from Sánchez. Check out the exit velos: 109.3 mph (lineout), 105.5 mph (double), 110.7 mph (home run). Woof.

• From there, Sánchez turned to his changeup. He went to it on 47 of his 96 pitches (49%). That mix represents a significant increase over the 30.2% he’s gone to his changeup this season.

• Braves hitters took 29 swings at the changeup last night and whiffed 18 times. They also swung at 56% of his changeups out of the strike zone. That’s nasty.

• Of his 10 strikeouts, 8 were finished with changeups.

Our take: Last night marked just the second time Sánchez gave up four or more earned runs in a start this season, yet it was one of his most impressive performances to date. There’s no need to hand out awards after giving up four runs in a 4-1 loss, but he kept his composure after a tough start and gave Atlanta plenty of uncomfortable at-bats. It was, by far, the best start the Phillies got this week — which maybe shouldn’t come as a surprise anymore.

2)😬 Everything is Fine, I Think, Right?

You probably aren’t feeling too awesome about the Phillies this morning. A 2-5 homestand with a bunch of dumb losses and missed opportunities against the Marlins and Braves will do that to you.

BUT…

Despite a disappointing stretch, the Phillies’ postseason hopes haven’t incurred much damage this week.

• The Phillies still hold a 1 ½ game lead over the Cubs for the top wild-card spot. They lost just ½ game in the standings to Chicago since last Friday. While the Phillies were fumbling away would-be wins to the Marlins and Braves, the Cubs were getting pushed around by the Diamondbacks and 53-win Rockies.

• Their overall grip on a postseason spot has weakened some. They held a 5 ½ game lead over the first team out a week ago. That lead is now down to 4 games.

• Still, the Phillies’ overall postseason odds remain incredibly strong at 95.9 percent, according to FanGraphs.

  Our take: If the Phillies go 7-9 the rest of the way (with 13 of their remaining games against the Mets, Cardinals, and Pirates), the Diamondbacks and Reds would have to go 11-4 to jump the Phillies. The Marlins and Giants would have to go 11-5.

3) Tweet of the Day: What’s with the Sportsmanship?

Saw some fans on Twitter (X) who were less than enthusiastic about the scoreboard congratulations — check the comments on the above tweet — but this is standard fare in baseball.

I get it though — it’s a division rival, one with which you have an escalating rivalry. Imagine the end zone scoreboards at Lincoln Financial Field saluting the Cowboys on an NFC East title. Feels weird.

4)📊 Poll: How Will the Phillies Finish?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll [Confidence Against the Braves?]:

Your replies…

“Not sure the Braves have the “clutch gene” that we’ve seen all year from Schwarber, Turner and Harper. Once it’s October and the CBP crowd is making noise, these L’s should turn into W’s.”

“I wish there was a maybe option? They have shown they can go toe-to-toe with the Braves, and if a couple of calls/at-bats/pitches had gone a little bit differently, they could have won all of these games. But those those things didn’t happen, and I don’t know that we can count on them changing, I.e., better at-bats and pitching from the Phillies, in October.”

“I think it's asking a lot to think the Phillies will erase the talent gap two years in a row.”

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• The Braves’ division title was sweeter in Philly (subscription 💰)

• Rob Thomson talks about Johan Rojas as a possible everyday centerfielder.

• Don’t count on a Rhys Hoskins postseason return.

• Anyone else confused about how the Phillies are using Sánchez?

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!