🔔 Let's Get Set for Opening Day

_{LAST GAME: Let’s not talk about it.}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Zack Wheeler) vs. Braves (Spencer Strider) | Today, 3:05 PM ET | NBC10}

Good morning. It has been been 157 days since the Phillies’ Game 7 loss to the Diamondbacks, and it has been 156 days since I last sent this newsletter. If you’re reading this, I appreciate you sticking around — or forgetting to unsubscribe.

Moving forward, you can expect this newsletter to arrive in your inbox before 9 a.m. every Monday and Friday. Of course, today is Opening Day, and if you haven’t been following closely since last October, you haven’t missed much. Whit Merrifield and Spencer Turnbull aside, every member of the 2024 Opening Day roster was a 2023 contributor.

Not much has changed in terms of expectations either. Despite oddsmakers pegging the Phillies at 89.5 wins and the Braves at 101.5 — a sizable gap — ask anyone around here (except a contrarian or two), and it’s World Series or bust.

In the email today:

As you know, the Braves and Phillies have quite a rivalry going these days. In recent seasons, it has consisted of the Braves dusting the Phillies by 14 games during the regular season only to be knocked out by the “lesser” team come October.

That brings us to an Opening Day matchup with plenty of juice that will feature the top two favorites to win this year’s National League Cy Young Award.

Zack Wheeler — now, with a splitter. Spencer Strider. Here’s what to know before first pitch.

• Despite leading baseball in nearly every offensive category a season ago, the Braves had little success against Wheeler. In three regular season games, Atlanta posted a collective .186 average and .674 OPS against him. That’s just a tick below their .274 season average and .837 OPS.

• Despite a Game 2 NLDS loss in Atlanta last October, Wheeler dominated the Braves to the tune of 10 strikeouts over 6 1/3 IP while allowing just three hits and two earned runs.

• Speaking of October, the Phillies (and fans at CBP) have gotten to Strider in the postseason, but he has been a brutal matchup for the Phillies overall. In four regular season starts last season, he posted a 2.42 ERA while striking out 38 batters in 26 IP. They hit just .192 against him.

• Unsurprisingly, some of the individual numbers have been rough. Alec Bohm (4-for-25, 11K), Bryson Stott (5-for-26, 8K) and J.T. Realmuto (3-for-20, 10K) have had an especially tough go at him.

• Looking for some potentially favorable matchups? Bryce Harper (6-for-19, 2 HR) and Brandon Marsh (5-for-15, 2B, HR) have had success.

Our take: A potential X-factor today? The weather. There will be clear skies this afternoon, but keep an eye on winds ranging from 10-15 mph with gusts up to 25 mph.

2) 🔒 Locks Only: 3 Phillies Predictions

There’s no better time to make some predictions than Opening Day. Surely, everything will play out exactly as we expect.

I just want you to know that I am generally a skeptical person. I think that’s important context to have prior to reading the following:

• Everybody always waits until the end to give the World Series prediction, but let’s get to the point: Phillies over Orioles. I’ll explain how I got here below.

• The Braves (96 wins) will once again take the NL East, finishing ahead of the Phillies (93 wins).

• The Phillies will finish among the top five teams in homers per game. On June 1 last season, they were 21st in this category before surging to 8th overall by season’s end. On June 24th, Kyle Schwarber was the only Phillie on pace to hit or exceed 20 homers (albeit it by a wide margin). By season’s end, six different hitters reached 20 or more homers. They’ll get that many again.

Our take: Many people walked away from last year’s NLCS wondering if the Phillies really are that team — a team loaded with guys who get it done when it matters most. That’s fair. Still, despite an all-time disappointing finish, I’ll bank on the considerable talent and some unquantifiable quality this team has to get back and finish the deal this time.

Very notably, Dave Dombrowski did little to change this roster, and that’s by design. It wasn’t a lack of creativity or financial willingness, it’s a recognition that this group can do it — though I wouldn’t bet against a significant in-season acquisition or two.

As for the Orioles, they were a 101-win team a season ago that probably arrived a year before expected. With an absurd amount of young talent along with a new ownership that’s willing to pay the price to win, they’re a great bet out of the American League — if they can consistently close games.

3) ⚾️ Tweet of the Day: Everybody Hits

4) 📊 Poll: Just How Far Will They Go?

Question: How far do you believe the Phillies will go this season?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment and see if we include your response next week.

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 👟 Bryce Harper has some fresh gear for Opening Day.

• 🏆 Joe Giglio is feeling it.

• 🌈 A rainbow was over Citizens Bank Park last night.

• 📝 Here’s a look at the complete Opening Day roster.

• 🕧 Going to the game? Check out the pregame schedule.

• 🎧 Shameless plug: I have a Phillies podcast. Listen to it.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!