🔔 The Math Loves Them

_{LAST GAME: Cardinals 5 - Phillies 4 (F/10)}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Zack Wheeler, 2.32 ERA) vs. Brewers (TBD) | Today, 6:40 p.m. EDT | NBCSP, 94 WIP}

Good morning. It was a stellar weekend for the Phillies, who took two of three from the Cardinals, but it did not end on a high note. Their bid for a sweep fell short thanks to another rocky outing from Taijuan Walker (more below) and a 3-for-17 night with runners in scoring position. It was an uncharacteristic performance for an offense that ranks top five in batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage with runners in scoring position. The loss was the Phillies’ third straight in extra innings, all of which saw them fail to score the ghost runner from second base. Not ideal.

Making matters worse, Brandon Marsh exited the game with a right hamstring injury. Marsh will be further evaluated today, but he will certainly miss some time.

In the email today:

You know by now just how good the Phillies’ starting rotation has been this season (with one obvious exception), and the numbers certainly back it up.

Here’s where it stood against all other MLB starting staffs entering play Sunday:

• 2.67 ERA (1st)

• 350.1 IP (1st)

• 3.26 FIP (1st)

• 25% strikeout percentage (1st)

• 8.2 fWAR (1st)

• .208 BAA (2nd)

• 1.06 WHIP (2nd)

Spectacular, of course, but you probably already know about the numbers. After all, anyone that talks about this team typically references at least some of the above, so I present to you a different way to contextualize just how utterly absurd this starting staff has been.

Over at ESPN, they offer up a Cy Young Predictor based on a formula created by Bill James and Rob Neyer. In short, “Cy Young Points” are assigned to pitchers based on an equation that accounts for variables such as innings pitched, earned runs, strikeouts, saves, wins and losses.

Care to take a shot at which team has each of the top three candidates?

Yup, you guessed it.

1. Ranger Suarez (98.7 points)

2. Aaron Nola (73.9 points)

3. Zack Wheeler (71.0 points)

Our take: It is my hope you find someone in life that loves you as much as this formula loves Phils starters.

Given the hype around Suarez and Wheeler, it’s not surprising to see either of these guys at or near the top, which is where they also sit in the current betting odds. But how about Nola? He has been both solid and, apparently, underrated this season.

Right now over at DraftKings, Wheeler (+300) has the best odds to win the award, Suarez (+500) is third, and if you’re looking for some value, Nola (+2500) is 11th.

2)📓 News, Notes and Observations

• The Brandon Marsh injury is bad news for an outfield group whose .625 OPS ranks 25th in MLB.

• The Phillies are likely to have a number of representatives at this year’s All-Star Game. Aaron Nola and J.T. Realmuto each have cases, but I’m going with Bryce Harper, Zack Wheeler, Ranger Suarez, Alec Bohm and Matt Strahm. Perhaps some local bias on my part with Strahm? I don’t think so. He hasn’t allowed an earned run since Opening Day, a stretch spanning 23.2 IP over 24 appearances. In those 24 games, Strahm has held opponents to a .139 batting average and .371 OPS, all while striking out 33 against only three walks. For my money, he has been the National League’s best relief pitcher this season.

• Since May 1, Phillies relievers have posted a 1.96 ERA, the best in MLB. Their 19.3% strikeout-to-walk percentage is tops, while their 1.07 WHIP ranks third.

• Some fans at Citizens Bank Park chanted “We want Turnbull” after Taijuan Walker served up a 105 mph rocket of a home run to Alec Burleson last night. You have to wonder when they’re going to get him. Through seven starts, Walker has a 5.73 ERA. Opponents are hitting .302 and Walker’s 15 walks in 37.2 IP has helped push up an ugly 1.59 WHIP.

• Walker’s struggles are not a product of bad luck. By the time Burleson homered in the third inning, the Cardinals had put five balls in play with an exit velo of 100+ mph. Just more of the same for Walker. He has allowed an 91.9 mph average exit velo and holds a 6.11 expected ERA, both of which rank in the bottom four percent of all MLB pitchers. The .546 expected slugging percentage ranks in the bottom two percent. Not great!

• The Phillies lead MLB in runs per game, but I was still surprised to find they had four of the National League’s top-15 batting averages in May. Of hitters with at least 80 plate appearances, J.T. Realmuto at .318 ranked fifth, Bryce Harper’s .313 was sixth, Edmundo Sosa’s .306 was 13th, and Kyle Schwarber at .297 came in at 15th.

3)🦒 Tweet of the Day: He Looks Like a Giraffe

What a gem. Who said in-game player interviews are a waste of time?

4)📊 Poll Question: Who’s Standing in the Way?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response Friday.

…

Results from our last poll [What Should the Phillies do with Kody Clemens when Trea Turner returns?]:

Your replies…

“It’s too long of a season to have to DFA another member of the bench. If you have to make a tough decision on Merrifield of Pache in august or September, revisit it then. In the meantime, don’t be cutting guys from the organization to make room for someone who’s has a hot week.”

“It really sucks because I think Pache adds value to this team, but of all the options presented, I think this is the best one. What do I think is likely? Clemens goes back down to Lehigh Valley because Pache is a right handed batter and the Phillies don't really need another left handed bat.”

“It’s wild that this is the team’s biggest decision right now.”

Our Take: In the two weeks since the Kody Clemens question was posed, he’s collected just one hit in 11 at-bats. Clemens was slated to get his first start since May 28 last night, but he was scratched two hours before the game with back spasms. While the hype train has definitely slowed of late, a lengthy Brandon Marsh absence could prolong a decision upon Trea Turner’s return.

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 😅 Ranger Suarez avoided a serious injury to his hand. He will pick up a ball early this week and could start in London against the Mets this weekend.

• 🤯 The Phillies are reportedly targeting outfield help.

• 👍 A dive into how Rob Thomson changed the Phillies.

• 🔎 A closer look at Aaron Nola’s overlooked season.

• 🎶 Phillies players discuss which teammate has the best walk-up music.

• 🤗 Rhys Hoskins is looking for closure as he returns to Philly this week (paywall).

• 🙄 Mike Sielski wants you to know you shouldn’t expect more from Taijuan Walker because the 1987 Phillies had bad pitching.

The newsletter today was written by Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!