🔔 Move Closer to Red October, My Friend

_{LAST GAME: PHILLIES 5 - METS 4}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Taijuan Walker) vs. Mets (Tyler Megill)}

_{Today, 7:05 EDT | Apple TV+, 94 WIP}

Good morning. It’s all Nick Castellanos, all the time right now. A night after powering the Phillies to a series win over the Braves, Castellanos stayed hot in a 5-4 win over the Mets. He picked up two more hits, swatted his 28th homer of the season and knocked in four runs to reach a career-high 103 RBI.

Just how hot is Castellanos right now?

So hot that his wife is starting to have some concerns.

In the email today:

Obviously, Castellanos was the big story last night, but there is another key Phillie who looks like he might be turning a corner at the best possible time.

How about that 9th inning from José Alvarado?

After allowing a one-out double to Brandon Nimmo, Alvarado retired Ronny Mauricio to set up a game-deciding showdown with Pete Alonso. Alvarado and the Phillies could have elected to put Alonso and his 45 home runs at first base, but they instead opted to go right after him.

Good decision.

• Alvarado didn’t get cute. He attacked Alonso with three sinkers averaging 99.7 mph before finishing him off with a nasty 95.3 mph cutter. He’s averaged 93.1 mph with the cutter this year, so that one had a little extra sauce on it. 🌶️

• That’s two scoreless appearances over two days in which he didn’t issue a walk while recording a pair of strikeouts. His feel for the strike zone is coming back.

• In eight appearances dating back to Sept. 3, Alvarado has a 2.25 ERA with 13 strikeouts while holding opponents to a .194 batting average.

Our take: Alvarado hasn’t looked the same since first going on the injured list back on May 10, but he might be returning to form just in time for the postseason. The Mets are anything but a playoff team, but Alvarado vs. Alonso felt like a postseason showdown.

When you take that type of aggressive mentality, execute pitches and win the battle — especially with the game on the line — it can do wonders for a pitcher. For months, it has felt like Alvarado has been more focused on competing against his 2022 second half and not competing in the moment.

He looked very much in the moment last night.

2) 🎲 What Are the Odds?

There has been a lot of talk about magic numbers and playoff probabilities, but what are professional oddsmakers saying about the postseason picture?

Even if you’re not into sports betting, the odds help provide insight into how this thing might play out.

Some relevant notes from DraftKings:

• The Phillies are -5000 to earn the National League No. 4 seed. The Diamondbacks (+2000) are next closest. In other words, it’s basically a lock the Phillies will host a playoff game on Oct. 3.

• At +650 odds, the Phillies have the 3rd best odds to win the National League pennant. They trail the Braves (+150) and Dodgers (+200).

• They have the 6th best odds to win the World Series behind the Braves, Dodgers, Astros, Orioles and Rays.

Our take: Seems about right to me. The Phillies are a dangerous team that pack enough punch to knock out the Braves and Dodgers in a postseason matchup, but both teams will likely finish 10+ games ahead of the Phillies in the standings. They have to get the nod.

I’d argue the Phillies have a better chance to win the World Series than teams like the Orioles, Rays, and maybe even the Dodgers 😬, but that would require diving into things like intangibles and feel.

Oddsmakers don’t live in that world.

3) 🌎 Tweet of the Day: Move Closer to Red October, My Friend

But the Big Story on Action News tonight is the Phillies’ magic number is now six to host the first round of the postseason at Citizens Bank Park.

4) 📊 Poll: Craig Kimbrel and Your Anxiety Level

Craig Kimbrel has a 0.00 ERA with 12.4 K/9 in eight games this month. Bet you didn’t realize that as you were watching baserunners do somersaults into second and third base in his last two games.

It hasn’t been pretty, but it has been effective, which begs the question:

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll: If the Phillies win the World Series, how would you view them?

Your replies…

“I grew up watching the ‘08-‘11 teams. I love the Utleys, Rollins, and Howards of the world. But if they win, 2023 will be my favorite. Nothing beats watching playoff baseball in college with all the buddies over.

“I love this current team, but the 2007-2011 Phillies were my ride-or-die. That team was poetry and grit, but never took themselves too seriously. The starting pitchers had a competition for best batting average!”

“I grew up with the ‘93 crew, but if these guys can get it from the WC again after last year’s run? No doubt, most lovable great team in franchise history. ”

…

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 👎 Should Michael Lorenzen get a pass for his first relief appearance?

• 🥇 Johan Rojas and Orion Kerkering were named 2023 Paul Owens Award winners.

• 🔥 A story on the Nick Castellanos effect.

• 😮A slow-motion look at an A+ bat flip.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!