🔔 It's Never as Bad as It Seems: J.T. Realmuto Helps Phils Avoid Sweep

_{LAST GAME: Phillies 4 - Brewers 2}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Taijuan Walker) vs. Padres (Rich Hill)}

_{Today, 6:40 EDT | NBCSP, 94 WIP}

If you watch enough baseball, you know things are usually never as good as they seem. They are also usually never as bad as they seem. The Phillies proved as much Sunday in Milwaukee where they were no-hit through five innings by Wade Miley. On the verge of being swept by the Brewers, Nick Castellanos got the Phillies on the board with an RBI double in the sixth before Alec Bohm and J.T. Realmuto hit back-to-back homers in the seventh of a 4-2 win.

Things escalated quickly:

Nobody is lifting a banner after the Phillies dropped two out of three to the Brewers, but they were a routine play in the eighth inning on Friday night from a series win. Deep breaths…

In the email today:

In case you missed it, and you probably did if you’re not dishing out $5.99 a month for Peacock, J.T. Realmuto capped a stellar weekend by drilling a 443-foot home run that left the bat at 107.9 mph. In three games against the Brewers, Realmuto went 4-for-9 while reaching base six times in 11 plate appearances. That performance further highlighted his baffling home/road splits this season.

• In 224 plate appearances at Citizens Bank Park, Realmuto is hitting .201 with a .601 OPS, homering just once every 44.8 plate appearances.

• In 237 plate appearances on the road, he is hitting .308 with a .963 OPS, homering once every 19.8 plate appearances.

Our take: It’s widely accepted that Realmuto has had a disappointing season at the plate, but his overall numbers are trending in a direction that suggest otherwise. Over his last 20 games, he’s hitting .296 with nine extra-base hits while posting an .886 OPS.

Realmuto (.785) currently holds a higher OPS than Alec Bohm (.773), Nick Castellanos (.770) and Bryson Stott (.768). He’s also second among Phillies position players in WAR, trailing only Stott.

So, why doesn’t it feel like it? The Phillies have had prolonged struggles with runners in scoring position this season and Realmuto is a big reason why. He is hitting just .206 w/ RISP this season while not one of his 17 homers has come with a runner standing on second or third base.

2)💀 Do It to Them Again

The Phillies are in San Diego this week for a three-game series and will look to effectively end the Padres’ season. Again.

• After winning three out of four against the Giants over the weekend, the Padres breathed a little bit of life back into their playoff hopes.

• In four days, the Padres have moved from 8.5 to 5.5 games out of the final wild card spot.

• According to FanGraphs, San Diego’s playoff odds have improved from 0.5% to 1.9% in that time. Not exactly inspiring stuff, but they’re alive — for now.

Our take: The Padres have almost no margin for error as they try to leap over the Marlins, Giants, Diamondbacks, and Reds. If the Phillies win this series, it’s lights-out for the Padres. That’s what’s in.

3)🐳 Tweet of the Day: A Whale’s Va…

This was, by far, the best moment of yesterday’s Peacock broadcast. Instant Sports Emmy nominee.

4) 📊 Poll: What Are Your Expectations?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• ✂️ Jose Alvarado needs his cutter to be successful. His appearance Sunday was a step in the right direction to finding it.

• 😬 Aaron Nola closed August with two strong starts, but opened his September with a clunker. A look at where he goes from here.

• 😅 Alec Bohm rebounded with a key home run Sunday. A story on his personal growth (💰 paywall).

• 🎙️ Here’s Scott Franzke’s call on the Realmuto homer.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!