🔔 NLCS Game 1 Observations

_{LAST GAME: PHILLIES 5 - DIAMONDBACKS 3}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Aaron Nola) vs. Diamondbacks (Merrill Kelly) | Today, 8:07 EDT | TBS, 94 WIP}

Good morning. Zack Wheeler came out firing. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos came out swinging, and the Phillies survived a late charge from the Diamondbacks to take Game 1.

Dating back to last October, the Phillies are now 7-0 in Game 1s. They will now turn their attention to improving on their 2-4 record in Game 2s.

If they do, this series may not make its way back to Philadelphia next week.

In the email today:

• Zack Wheeler was ridiculous. He is ridiculous. He allowed just 3 Diamondbacks to reach base over 6 innings of 2-run baseball. After allowing a leadoff single to Corbin Carroll, he promptly retired 15 consecutive Arizona hitters before Evan Longoria reached base with a 6th inning single. He is now 3-0 this postseason with a 2.37 ERA and 0.632 WHIP. He has a 26/1 strikeout-to-walk ratio.

• Wheeler currently holds the lowest WHIP (0.695) of any pitcher in postseason history that has thrown at least 40 innings. Mariano Rivera and his 0.759 postseason WHIP is second best.

• To further contextualize how good Wheeler has been in the playoffs, consider this: Curt Schilling, often regarded as one of the best postseason pitchers of all-tiem, has 0.97 postseason WHIP. Local legend Cliff Lee has 0.93 postseason WHIP.

• In 3 career NLCS starts, Wheeler is 3-0 with a 1.89 ERA and an utterly-absurd 0.421 WHIP. I had to look this one up twice. He’s allowed a total of 8 baserunners in 19 NLCS innings.

• Much has been made about high payroll teams failing to meet expectations in recent years. Big spend is working for the Phillies right now. Kyle Schwarber, Bryce Harper and Nick Castellanos each homered last night. That’s $86 million in 2023 base salaries at work.

• Speaking of big money, no homers for Trea Turner last night. Just a ho-hum 2-for-4 game with a double and a run scored. Turner is hitting .500 with a 1.426 OPS in 7 postseason games this month.

• Castellanos has hit 5 homers over his last 3 games. As John Clark pointed out during his postgame interview with Castellanos, that’s Reggie Jackson stuff. In addition to hitting .370 with a 1.414 OPS this postseason, Castellanos has also now put 8 balls in play with an exit velo north of 100 mph over his last 4 games. Said plainly, he’s hitting the shit out of the ball.

• Not sure what the Diamondbacks and Zac Gallen were trying to do with the first pitch to Schwarber, who turned a 92-mph center-cut 4-seam fastball into a 420 ft. rocket out to right field. It came off the bat at 117.1 mph. Schwarber now has 7 homers in 24 postseason games with the Phillies. His 4 postseason leadoff homers are an MLB record.

• In the 4th inning, Schwarber failed to score Brandon Marsh from third base with 1 out when he hit into a fielder’s choice. Poor result, but that one came off the bat at 111 mph. Worth noting if you’re looking for signals that Schwarber is about to lock in for a few games.

• If you want something to pick apart, it’s a short list, but I’ll give it a shot. Seranthony Dominguez had a brutal error that led to a run in the 7th inning, but what can’t happen is the leadoff walk with a 3-run lead.

• Every single Phillie reached base last night, but only Bryson Stott and Alec Bohm failed to record a hit. Stott (.208 BA) and Bohm (.167 BA) are both fighting it right now. The more concerning trend is with Bohm, given he continues to hit behind Harper.

2) ⏩ Let’s Get Set for Game 2

There’s no extra day off built into the NLCS schedule, so the Phillies, Diamondbacks, and all of us are right back at it tonight.

Let’s gear up for Game 2 with a few pregame notes:

• Per FanGraphs, the Phillies’ odds of winning the World Series jumped from 32.9% to 41.9% following their Game 1 win.

• Over at DraftKings, the Phillies’ odds to win the NLCS moved from -170 to -340 after last night.

• Trea Turner is the only Phillie with more than 10 at-bats against Diamondbacks Game 2 starter Merrill Kelly, and he’s had success. Turner is 9-for-21 with 3 doubles, 3 walks, and 6 RBI against Kelly. That’s good for a .429 and 1.071 OPS.

• J.T. Realmuto is the only Phillie with a homer off of Kelly.

• Kelly has made one postseason appearance. He pitched into the 7th inning while holding the Dodgers scoreless.

• Like Zac Gallen, Kelly was much better at home this season. In 15 road starts, he had a 4.07 ERA along with a 1.381 WHIP. He did, however, finish the season strong. In 6 September starts, he had a 3.22 ERA while holding opponents to a .202 BA and .612 OPS.

• Aaron Nola comes in red-hot. He’s allowed 2 ER over 12 2/3 IP in two postseason starts. Nothing truly jumps out in terms of Nola vs. Diamondbacks hitters. Ketel Marte is 1-for-6 with a homer. Gabriel Moreno is 2-for-3. That’s about it.

3) 💣 Tweet of the Day: A Historic Offense

Ironically, the Phillies didn’t homer after this tweet. Are you worried about this Phillies offense? I kid, I kid…

4)📊 Poll: What Happens in Game 2?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll (Who Will Be Named NLCS MVP?):

Your replies…

“If Nick keeps slugging homers and fielding he deserves recognition!”

“Schwarber is very due and has a thing for getting it going during the NLCS. The Diamondbacks do not have very good pitching and their better starters are low velocity guys. Schwarbs will go OFF. If not Kyle, then Bryce will be NLCS MVP. No explanation needed.”

“Listen to your podcast partner when he says Trea Turner. I'm only picking Harper because you forgot to include Trea. Shame on you, Bob. I blame the heating guy for distracting you. Did he go to Bishop Eustace too?”

…

Our take: Yes, I did forget to include Trea Turner. You can probably go ahead and lock him in to win NLCS MVP now.

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 😬 The awkwardness of a Nick Castellanos interview is must-see stuff.

• 😉 A look at how the Phillies ambushed Zac Gallen.

• 😛 The Spanish call of Bryce Harper’s Game 1 homer is absolutely wild.

• 📻 Here’s the ballpark audio of Kyle Schwarber’s leadoff homer.

• 🤯 Schwarber talks about what it’s like to homer at CBP.

• 🍁 Zack Wheeler is turning into an October legend.

• 🎛️ Here’s a cool look at how loud Citizens Bank Park gets during the playoffs.

• 🚑 Rob Thomson talks about the decision to leave Rhys Hoskins off the NLCS roster.

• ✍️ Jayson Stark checks in with some numbers from the Phillies’ Game 1 win.

• 😲 What a month it has been for Liam Castellanos.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X!)

Thanks for reading!