🔔 NLCS Game 2 Observations

Get Off the Tracks When the Train's Coming Through

Author

Bob Wankel
October 18, 2023

Photo Credit: Twitter/X

LAST GAME: PHILLIES 10 - DIAMONDBACKS 0

NEXT GAME: Phillies (TBD) vs. Diamondbacks (Brandon Pfaadt), | Thurs, Oct 19, 5:07 EDT TBS, 94 WIP

Good morning. The Diamondbacks learned an important lesson through two games in South Philly this week — don’t stand on the tracks when the train is coming through. Things can change, but right now, the Phillies look like a machine that will destroy anyone and anything in their way of a return trip to the World Series.

Aaron Nola tossed 6 scoreless innings to lower his ERA to 0.96 this month while the Phillies again used a barrage of homers to pummel a Diamondbacks team that simply looks like overmatched.

Nobody loves to party at home like this Phillies team does, but it sure looks like their next one will come out west this weekend.

In the email today:

  1. 👀 Crushed ‘Em: NLCS Game 2 Observations

  2. 🧐 A Massive Game 3 Advantage

  3. 🤣 Tweet of the Day: He Got Jacked Up!

  4. 📊 Poll: Does This Series Make It Back to Philly?

  5. 🔗 Link Roundup

1) 👀 Crushed ‘Em: NLCS Game 2 Observations

A total beatdown. That’s what Game 2 was. An ass-kicking.

Listen, the Diamondbacks may or may not have been rattled by the crowd noise at Citizens Bank Park, but they sure looked overwhelmed last night.

They were outscored 10-0, out-hit by an 11-4 margin, struck out 13 times, and by the 7th inning, even a routine infield popup turned into an adventure:

The series now shifts out west to Chase Field Thursday, but before it does, let’s check in with some Game 2 observations:

  • Well, Aaron Nola is going to get paid this offseason. There’s no question about that now, not after he turned in yet another brilliant postseason start. It’s probably time to close the book on any discussion about Nola’s ability to own the big moment.

  • Here is what he has done in 3 postseason starts this month: 3-0 record, 18 2/3 IP, 12 H, 2 ER, 2 BB, 19 K, adding up to a 0.96 ERA and 0.75 WHIP. Is that something you might be interested in?

  • Both Nola and Zack Wheeler have been an October cheat code. In 37 2/3 IP over 6 combined starts, the duo has produced a 1.67 ERA with a 0.69 WHIP to go along with a 45/3 strikeout-to-walk ratio. Are you kidding me?

  • Really, the entire Phillies’ pitching staff has been sensational in these playoffs. Collective, they have pitched to 1.39 ERA (1st) with an 0.83 WHIP while holding opponents to a .174 batting average. From game planning to pitch sequencing to execution, the whole operation has been awesome.

  • I thought Nola quickly brushing off the 1st inning error by Trea Turner was key. Citizens Bank Park was on fire last night. Quieting the Diamondbacks early and giving his team a chance to build an early lead ramped things up a notch. The fans smelled blood last night. It felt like an elimination game.

  • Speaking of Tuner: He’s 15-for-30 with a .559 OBP and 1.526 OPS in the playoffs. This is all-time stuff from him, but on this team, right now, it’s like “Oh yeah, he’s been pretty good too.”

  • The Phillies have mashed 19 homers this postseason and have outhomered Arizona 6-1 in the NLCS. Collectively, they are hitting .284 with a .366 OBP and .941 OPS. Said differently, the entire lineup, 1 through 9, is producing at an MVP-level.

  • NLCS Schwarber is greater than June Schwarber. Why yes, yes I did pick Kyle Schwarber as my NLCS MVP. Who knows if he’ll win it — Nola and Wheeler have been insane, Turner has been remarkable, and winners are often boosted on the strength of late-series performances. No matter what, Schwarber is rolling again. After failing to homer against the Marlins or Braves, Schwarber has cranked 3 bombs in 2 games against the Diamondbacks. He now has 6 homers in 7 NLCS games with the Phillies.

  • Alec Bohm made two game-changing plays early on that kept Arizona in check. In the 2nd inning, he took extra bases away from Gabriel Moreno. In the 4th, he started up a fielder’s choice on a tough play going to his left. It’s likely Arizona would have later generated runs in both instances had he not made the plays.

2)💪🏻 A Massive Game 3 Advantage

The Diamondbacks will turn to 25-year-old rookie right-hander Brandon Pfaadt in Game 3 to get back into the series and effectively save their season.

The Phillies have never faced him, and you may have never watched him pitch, so here’s what to know.

  • The biggest burning question: How the hell do you say this guy’s name? FAT? FAADAT? PEE-FADT? Nope. It’s FOUGHT.

  • Pfaadt posted a 5.72 ERA over 19 games (18 starts) this season. In 2 postseason starts (7 IP), Pfaadt has a 3.86 ERA.

  • The right-hander has a 5-pitch mix, though he relies most heavily upon a 4-seam fastball (45.4%) and sweeper (27%) with the changeup a distant third (12.1%), per MLB Statcast data. He will also occasionally show a sinker (9.9%) and curveball (5.5%).

  • He averages 93.7 mph with his 4-seam fastball, so he’s not exactly overpowering. In fact, opponents teed off against his fastball during the regular season, hitting .325 with a staggering .650 SLG% against it, per Statcast.

  • In 10 regular season starts at Chase Field, opponents hit .314 with an .888 OPS against him. Both LHH (.867) and RHH (.858 OPS) had success.

  • Pfaadt’s overall numbers aren’t good, but he did get better results as the season progressed. He had a 9.82 ERA through 6 starts (all made prior to the All-Star break). Opponents hit an absurd .346 with a 1.102 OPS in those 6 starts. In 13 games after the break, he held a 4.22 ERA while opponents hit a more reasonable .257 with a .766 OPS.

  • Arizona may be quick with the hook on Pfaadt. Opponents posted a .703 OPS his 1st time through an order, .859 the 2nd time and 1.193 the 3rd time through.

Our take: Phillies likely Game 3 starter Ranger Suarez has a 1.16 ERA in 7 career postseason games (5 starts). Opponents have hit .155 against him in 23 1/3 postseason innings.

Really, this is just a nice way of saying the Phillies have a massive starting pitching advantage going into Game 3.

3) 😆 Tweet of the Day: He Got Jacked Up!

Not even a question for today’s pick. Potential safety option for the Eagles?

4) 📊 Poll: Does This Series Get Back to Philly?

Does the NLCS make its way back to Philadelphia next week?

Choose an answer below.

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll (Will the Phillies head west with a 2-0 series lead?):

Your replies…

“Merrill Kelly just doesn't scare me. His stuff isn't great and he's been subpar on the road. I think the Phillies get to him early and continued to add on to the DBacks’ below average bullpen.”

“Phillies hitters and Aaron Nola are locked in right now. Arizona, while they made it a little interesting late, does not have the fire power to withstand this Phillies lineup and the crowd. I am expecting a similar result as last night.”

“Nola is due for a blow-up inning after avoiding them so far this post-season. But I hope he proves me wrong.”

…

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel [Follow on X!]

Thanks for reading!W