🔔 NLDS Game 2 Observations

_{LAST GAME: BRAVES 5 - PHILLIES 4}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Aaron Nola) vs. Braves (TBD) | Wed, Oct. 11, 5:07 EDT | TBS, 94 WIP}

Good morning. I hope you are ready for a Tuesday filled with “they got the split they needed” and “they just blew the series” takes. I, for one, am looking forward to it.

Varying levels of optimism aside, the Phillies wasted a 4-0 lead in what eventually became an excruciating 5-4 loss. They stranded 10 runners through the first 6 innings before a careless Trea Turner error, one mistake by Zack Wheeler and a questionable slider from Jeff Hoffman to Austin Riley changed the entire complexion of the series.

In the email today:

One thing I’m sure you wanted to do today is relive the frustration of a loss that joins some of the non-elimination game all-timers: Game 4 of the 1993 World Series and Game 2 of the 2011 NLDS among them.

Let’s just rip the band-aid off and get to the Game 2 observations.

• Of course, the Phillies have to find a way to protect a 4-0 lead, but they had plenty of chances to extend it. A total of 9 hits and 7 walks should lead to more than 4 runs. Compounding the frustration is that the Braves made all 4 of their hits stand up (run-scoring single, single, two-run homer, two-run homer).

• Of all the agitating things that transpired last night, none bothered me more than Trea Turner’s 6th inning error. Not only did he fail to pick Nick Castellanos’ throw back into the infield, but he positioned himself incorrectly to receive it. Why did Turner field the ball with a backhand stab instead of getting around the ball? What was the goal there? The mistake plated Atlanta’s 1st run and gave life to a lineup that looked utterly lost up until that point.

• Zack Wheeler was phenomenal. He made one true mistake, and Travis d’Arnaud made him pay for it. If this series goes the distance, the Phillies have to feel ultra-confident in Wheeler taking the ball in the deciding game.

• I’m a little lost on the Rob Thomson criticism this morning, at least on his decision to stick with Wheeler in the 7th. He had allowed one hit, a single, through 6 innings and was moving towards the bottom of the order. d’Arnaud has strong career numbers against Wheeler but took 2 uncomfortable at-bats against him earlier in the game. Wheeler is the Phillies’ best arm. He got beat. It happens.

• The Phillies’ gameplan on Austin Riley has been to attack with velocity, so it was worth questioning why Jeff Hoffman went with the 3-2 slider that landed in the left field seats. He pulled a fastball earlier in the count, but so what? Go back to it. If he misses, they have Gregory Soto for Matt Olson.

• They Phillies also have to feel good about another potential matchup with Max Fried. He allowed 10 baserunners and recorded just 12 outs. Credit to him for not letting the game get out of reach, but this would be a favorable rematch.

• What’s up with the Phillies’ baserunning this postseason? Third base coach Dusty Wathan had a rough game last week. Last night, he had no chance to score Alec Bohm from second base on Castellanos’ single with 2 outs in the 1st. Then there was the game-ending Harper mistake in the 9th. Baserunning gaffes were an early-season issue for this team. Now is a bad time for this stuff to resurface.

Our take: Some criticism of the Phillies is warranted, but so is some credit to the Braves. The bullpen kept them afloat, both d’Arnaud and Riley put together good swings, and Michael Harris II made a phenomenal play in the 9th to preserve the win. Still, it’s impossible to rehash this one and not feel like the Phillies gave this game away.

2) ☀️ On the Bright Side

Despite the loss, the Phillies remain in decent position to win this series.

Some quick notes:

• They enter Game 3 with Aaron Nola on the mound as a small betting favorite.

• However, their odds to win the series fell from -170 to +115 at DraftKings following last night.

• In 3 starts against the Braves this season, Aaron Nola has a 3.50 ERA over 18 IP. He’s held the Braves to a .232 BA and .676 OPS.

• The Braves haven’t announced a Game 3 starter. The assumption was that it would be Bryce Elder, but could they go in a different direction? For what’s it worth, Elder had a 4.05 ERA in 14 road starts this season.

• In 2 starts against the Phillies, he had a 3.38 ERA over 10.2 IP. Nick Castellanos took him deep twice.

3)🥊 Tweet of the Day: Punch Me in the Face

4) Poll: Will The Phillies Bounce Back?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

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Results from our last poll (Will the Phillies take a 2-0 series lead?):

Your replies…

“Wheeler has been dealing and I suspect the Phillies bats will wake up against Fried. Castellanos should continue his lopsided battle with Fried and have to expect more memorable moments from Harper. The bullpen wasn’t too strained and expect them to work in a few of their canons to close out the game. The biggest question is what tantrum Braves fans “throw” during game 2 when things don’t go their way. ”

“This amazing group of men are a real TEAM! And they all want this for the TEAM! They’re hungry for! And tonight they will feast! 💗”

“Wheeler pitches much better on normal rest as opposed to the extra day he's had now, so I think Atlanta is going to get to him.”

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• Marcus Hayes disagrees with me on Thomson’s decision to stick with Zack Wheeler in the 7th inning.

• Nick Castellanos doesn’t seem too worried about the Phillies’ Game 2 collapse.

• The Phillies should have no shortage of regrets this morning.

• Bryce Harper admits he was too aggressive on the bases in the 9th.

• Check out the latest episode of Crossed Up: A Phillies Podcast for a Game 2 recap and Game 3 preview.

• John Middleton is a bundle of nerves.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!