🔔 NLDS Game 3 Observations

_{LAST GAME: PHILLIES 10 - BRAVES 2}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Ranger Suarez) vs. Braves (Spencer Strider)}

_{Today, 8:07 EDT | TBS, 94 WIP}

Good morning. In the moment, the Phillies’ Game 3 rout of the Braves felt like a stunning result. In hindsight, we all should have seen 10-2, 6 homers, and 2 epic stare downs coming the moment Nick Castellanos and Bryce Harper arrived at Citizens Bank Park with the Coach Prime gear.

Why?

As Deion Sanders told his University of Colorado football team before a rivalry game last month:

It was just gonna be a good game. They done messed around and made it…

Personal.

And now, the Braves sit on the brink of another completely forgettable 100+ win season.

In the email today:

There is quite a bit to unpack after the Phillies’ memorable Game 3 demolition of the Braves, so let’s jump right into some observations:

• Bryce Harper didn’t hit 2 home runs because Orlando Arcia poked the bear. He hit 2 home runs because he is a generational talent that thrives on the biggest stages. That said, Arcia’s postgame cackling and “atta-boy” from Monday night did not go unnoticed. I appreciate that Harper admitted as much after the game. “I stared right at him,” he said when asked about the stare down.

• In 22 postseason games with the Phillies, Harper is 28-for-80 (.350 BA) with 9 homers, 7 doubles, and 18 RBI.

• It’s not recency bias — Bryce Harper is a “Mount Rushmore” Phillie. His absurd ability to own the big moment is unlike anything I’ve ever seen. I don’t know about you, but for me, it has gotten to the point where I expected at least 1 home run last night. My guess is a lot of Same Game Parlays placed by Phils fans cashed last night.

• There must be something about the 3rd inning of NLDS Game 3s between these two teams. For the second straight season, the Phillies benefited from an epic, game-altering homer that fueled a six-run 3rd inning. Rhys Hoskins last year, Harper this season.

• After another stellar postseason outing, I think it’s fair to say Aaron Nola has made everyone forget about his 4.46 regular season ERA. Nola was on-point in a had-to-have game, giving up just 2 earned runs over 5 2/3 IP. He struck out 9 Braves while walking just 1. In 2 starts this postseason, he has a 1.42 ERA and 0.87 WHIP.

• What I found most impressive about Nola’s night was his ability to work out of some early jams. Too often this season, a dink and a dunk meant a 3-run inning was coming. Not last night. Nola worked out of tight spots in both the 1st and 3rd innings with strikeouts of Marcell Ozuna, buying time for the lineup to wake up and take over the game.

• Believe it or not, the Phillies have won 10 of Nola’s last 11 starts.

• Nick Castellanos is dialed in right now. He had 2 homers last night to go with 2 hits Monday night, and there has been plenty of hard contact. Over his last 2 games, Castellanos has put a total of 7 balls in-play with an exit velocity over 95 mph, 5 of which had an exit velocity of over 100 mph.

• The Braves led MLB with 146 1st inning runs during the regular season. They also led all teams in 1st inning batting average, on-base percentage and slugging percentage. They have yet to score a 1st inning run in the NLDS.

• Is tonight the night the Phillies get a big game from Kyle Schwarber? He’s just 4-for-21 this postseason and has yet to homer.

2) ✅ They Can End It Tonight

With a win tonight, the Phillies will advance to the NLCS and have home-field advantage against the Arizona Diamondbacks. 

The Braves have the edge at DraftKings Sportsbook, where they are a -155 favorite to win the game, but the Phillies are -250 to win the series.

A quick look at what to know ahead of Game 4:

• It will be a rematch between Game 1 starters Ranger Suarez and Spencer Strider. Suarez was excellent over 3 2/3 scoreless IP in Game 1, allowing just 2 total baserunners while striking out 4.

• After going 4-0 with a 2.42 ERA over 38 IP across 4 regular season starts against the Phillies, Strider was also excellent in Game 1. He allowed 5 hits and 1 earned run over 7 IP to go along with 8 strikeouts.

• The Phils’ success was limited against Strider. Harper got him for a solo homer, Bryson Stott had a pair of hits, and Schwarber led off the game with a double. That’s it.

• Brandon Marsh was hitless in Game 1, but he is one of the few Phillies with solid career numbers against Strider (.308 BA). Marsh is coming off a big 3-hit game with plenty of hard contact, including a homer.

• Rob Thomson is likely to be aggressive with a rested bullpen, much like he was in Game 1. That said, Suarez has a strong track record of success against this Braves lineup. In fact, over his last 6 starts against the Braves, Suarez has a 0.90 ERA.

3)🏆 Tweets of the Day: The Best of the Best

4)📊 Poll: Will the Phillies End It Tonight?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll (Will the Phillies bounce back to win the series?):

Your replies…

“How many times have we heard Rob Thomson say this is the most resilient team he's seen? Time to put their money where their mouths are.”

“No doubt in my mind that they come out HOT on Wednesday night! CBP crowd will absolutely fire them up.”

“I think they will respond, but I’m not sure they win the series. Still thinking this goes to a nail biting Game 5.”

“The Phillies will win in four. Nola vs. Elder is a major advantage, especially in CBP. All the pressure will be on Atlanta in Game 4 and Strider won't survive the jungle.”

…

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• ⏰ The moment is never too big for Bryce Harper.

• 👀 Here are my complete Game 3 observations.

• ⛽️ More on how Orlando Arcia fueled Bryce Harper’s night.

• 😉 The Phillies want you to pick your favorite Game 3 photo.

• 😂 The Braves blamed the media for the Harper/Arcia thing. Lol

• 🙄 The Braves radio booth had an interesting take after Bryce Harper’s second homer.

• 😊 A cool moment for Nick Castellanos and his son.

• ✍️ Corey Seidman got a great quote from Bryce Harper following the game. Here’s his story.

• 🔮 Some teammates saw Harper’s big night coming.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!