🔔 NLDS Game 4 Observations

_{LAST GAME: PHILLIES 3 - BRAVES 1}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (TBD) vs. Diamondbacks (TBD)}

_{Mon, Oct 16, 8:07 EDT | TBS, 94 WIP}

Good morning. The Phillies are going to the National League Championship Series. Again. Let those glorious words wash over you on the morning after they finished their week-long demolition of the Atlanta Braves.

Ranger Suarez outpitched Spencer Strider. Trea Turner and Nick Castellanos together outhit the entire Atlanta lineup. And for the second straight October, the Phillies purely outclassed the heavily-favored Braves en route to an emphatic series win.

By the end of the night, a humbled Braves team was headed back to Atlanta. This while a beer-drenched Garrett Stubbs was packing 7 Bud Heavies into his overalls as “Dicked Down in Dallas” blasted through the Phillies’ clubhouse.

A sanctuary, some would call it.

In the email today:

There’s plenty to cover following last night. Let’s waste no time and get right to it.

• There will be no need to hear about the Braves’ “historic offense” any longer. Not after this series. Not after a lineup that produced a staggering 5.75 runs per game and an MLB record 307 homers managed to produce a feeble 8 runs over 4 games against Phillies’ pitching.

• The Braves hit an MLB-best .276 with an MLB-best .845 OPS over 162 regular season games. The Phillies held them to a .177 BA, .519 OPS and 2.0 runs per game in the NLDS. Just an outstanding job by this group of pitchers. Credit should also go to Phillies pitching coach Caleb Cotham and J.T. Realmuto for devising and executing a gameplan that baffled Braves hitters throughout the series.

• As for offenses that actually produce when it matters, the Phillies lead all postseason teams with a .538 slugging percentage and .892 OPS. Along with the Diamondbacks, they lead the way with 13 postseason homers.

• Spencer Strider didn’t implode on the Citizens Bank Park mound last night, but it was a pretty pedestrian effort. The Phillies jacked 3 homers off Strider over 5 2/3 IP.

• Really, Strider did well to limit the damage. It could have been way worse. The Phillies went 0-for-5 w/ RISP through the first 3 innings, while he also benefited from a run-saving double-play started by Michael Harris. Harris made a great play on a sinking liner off the bat of Johan Rojas that had an .860 expected batting average.

• Ranger Suarez with another ice-cold postseason performance: 5 IP, 3 H, 1 ER, 0 BB, 2 K. Over his last 7 appearances against the Braves, he’s allowed a total of 4 ER in 35 IP. He is a stone-cold killer.

• What a series for Nick Castellanos. He out-homered the Braves in the NLDS by a 4-3 margin. In doing so, he became the first player in MLB postseason history to hit multiple homers in consecutive games.

• Dating back to Monday night, Castellanos put 10 balls in play with an exit velocity over 95 mph, of which 7 carried an exit velo over 100 mph.

• Didn’t believe it when I first heard it in the press box, but Trea Turner’s 4-hit night set a Phillies’ postseason record. In 6 postseason games, Turner is hitting .500 with a .538 OBP and 1.455 OPS.

• The Game 4 crowd was both loud and and relentless, including well before first pitch. As Strider made his way to the bullpen 36 minutes before the game, the fans were all over him. Loud boos, “Striiiiiderrr” chants. It never let up all night. Great energy. Insane stamina. There’s nothing like it.

• If you were like me, there were a few points last night when I questioned some of the Phillies’ bullpen tactics. Jose Alvarado in the 6th? Craig Kimbrel with an up-down in the 7th and 8th? Matt Strahm to close? Sure, why not? It worked. Credit Rob Thomson and his staff — they thoroughly outmaneuvered Brian Snitker and his staff in this series.

• The Phillies will likely need more from Kyle Schwarber and Alec Bohm moving forward. Thanks to outstanding pitching and some unconscious offensive performances, the Phillies survived the NLDS despite 2 of their top hitters going a combined 4-for-33 with 1 RBI.

2) 🐍 Looking Ahead: I’ve Always Hated Snakes

Game 1 of the 2023 NLCS will begin on Monday night at 8:07 on TBS.

The Phillies will have home field advantage, meaning they will host games 1-2 as well as 6-7 (if necessary).

• There’s nothing official yet, but expect to see Zack Wheeler against South Jersey’s Zac Gallen in Game 1.

• The Phillies are a -162 Game 1 favorite and are -170 to advance to the World Series, per DraftKings.

• At +210, the Phillies trail only the Astros (+185) in terms of best odds to win the World Series.

• FanGraphs currently gives the Phillies a 32% chance to win the World Series, behind only the Astros (33.8%).

• Wheeler made 2 starts against the Diamondbacks this season, holding them to 4 earned runs over 12 innings, although he allowed 12 hits.

• Current Arizona hitters have had some career success against Wheeler, hitting a collective .292 with an .838 OPS. He has had problems with Tommy Pham (1.327 OPS in 15 PA) and Christian Walker (1.412 OPS in 17 PA).

• In his lone start against the Phils this season, Gallen allowed a pair of earned runs in 5 2/3 IP, surrendering 5 hits and 2 walks to go along with 3 strikeouts. The South Jersey native has a 4.38 ERA in 3 career starts at Citizens Bank Park.

3) 🍻 Tweets of the Day: The Celebration

4) 📊 Poll: Early NLCS Takes

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll (Will the Phillies End the Series Tonight?):

Your confidence was justified.

Your replies…

“Phillies are in the Braves’ head. Strider may very well have a quality start. It won’t matter. The Phillies will find a way to manufacture runs, Ranger will be dominant, and it will be on to Arizona.”

“Time for the regular season champs to get their tee times reserved.”

“SPPPEEEEEEEEEEEENCCCCEEEEEEEEEERRRR SPPPEEEEEEEEEEEENCCCCEEEEEEEEEERRRR Sorry....just warming up for tonight.....zero shot this dude has the testicular fortitude to shut us down tonight.”

…

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🤔 Good luck recreating the Phillies’ postseason formula.

• 😬 Orlando Arcia was in full-on meltdown mode last night.

• 🦅 Eagles defensive tackle Fletcher Cox walked into the postgame celebration last night.

• 🤬 It was quite a postgame tour for Nick Castellanos.

• 🎲 Betting odds say otherwise, but it feels like the Phillies are World Series favorites.

• 🫴 Here’s an awesome angle of Johan Rojas’ catch.

• 👍 Good on Spencer Strider. No excuses here.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!