🔔 And Now Here Come The Braves

_{LAST GAME: Marlins 5 - Phillies 4}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Taijuan Walker) vs. Braves (Charlie Morton)}

_{Today, 1:05 EDT | NBCSP, 94 WIP}

Good morning. Let’s play two! In case you used all of your Philadelphia sports angst on the Eagles’ offense over the weekend, you might have missed the Phillies losing two of three to the Marlins. They shouldn’t have, as they carried late leads into all three games.

In both losses, the offense failed to build on early outbursts, while Seranthony Domínguez (we’ll get to him below), was an absolute killer — and not in a good way.

Now, the Phillies host the Braves for a four-game series that begins this afternoon with the first game of a day-night doubleheader.

In the email today:

The Phillies took it to the Braves last October, knocking off a 101-win machine on the way to an eventual World Series appearance. Aaron Nola dazzled, Rhys Hoskins and Brandon Marsh each delivered unforgettable home runs, and the Phillies’ bullpen shut the door late. Dancing on My Own played, Citizens Bank Park rocked. It was peak Red October.

But here’s the thing about the Braves — they’re better this season. While this may be a bit presumptuous, the Phillies (I think) will earn one of the top two wild-card spots, meaning they will have to once again go through Atlanta if they reach the NLDS.

Just how good are the Braves? Well…

• At 93-49, the Braves are the only team to have already clinched a postseason berth. They are currently on pace for 106 wins.

• It doesn’t matter where they play. No crazy home/road splits here. They are 46-24 on the road, 47-25 at home.

• With a +238 run-differential, the Braves lead the rest of baseball by a wide margin. The Rays (+195) and Dodgers (+172) are next closest, and neither team is actually close.

• Offensively, Atlanta leads MLB in the following categories: batting average, on-base percentage, slugging percentage, and, naturally, OPS among others. They’ve swatted 272 home runs this season, a staggering 51 more than the next closest team, the Dodgers.

Our take: Home or road, left or right, day or night, the Braves have been a machine. They have been in first place for 138 consecutive days, holding the top spot of the NL East standings since April 2.

If there is a weakness, you might look at the pitching staff and not get blown away, but even their 3.88 staff ERA ranks 5th in MLB.

All of this is to say that should the Phillies get the Braves again next month, they’re going to have to play their best baseball of the season by a mile. A fired up Citizens Bank Park helps, but they have a lot to iron out between now and then.

In Friday’s newsletter, I noted some concerns about Seranthony Domínguez, and that was before he gave up a pair of backbreaking homers over the weekend. The Phillies have a big problem here, and they have three weeks to fix it.

You can look at the season statistics and see they aren’t great. A 4.25 ERA and 1.54 WHIP doesn’t exactly scream dependable high-leverage reliever, but the concerns go deeper. He’s more hittable (currently has a career-worst in hits and homers allowed per nine innings) and walking more batters while striking out fewer.

• After striking out 10.76 batters per nine last season, his K/9 rate is down to 8.72.

• According to MLB Statcast, his expected ERA sits at 4.66, which means he’s been the beneficiary of some good luck this season.

• His four-seam fastball and sinker velocity have maintained but his whiff percentage has dipped slightly on both pitches. The biggest dip in effectiveness has come with the slider. Batters have gone from whiffing on 57.1% of swings last season to just 42.7% this season.

Our take: At this point, Jeff Hoffman has probably jumped Domínguez for the primary right-handed setup role. That’s a credit to Hoffman, who has delivered some big outs for the Phillies, but it’s hard to imagine them making a deep postseason run if Domínguez continues to pour gasoline in on late-inning fires.

3) 🐴 Tweet of the Day: When in Denver

Might have to start carving out a special T-Mac spot in the newsletter. That’s twice in three sends that he’s filled this spot. Admittedly, the Phillies memes and tweets weren’t quite as strong yesterday.

The creative energy was focused on the Eagles, I guess.

4) 📊 Poll: Do You Believe the Phillies Can Beat the Braves in October?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll [Which Phillies’ reliever do you trust most right now?]:

Your replies…

“This might be an impossible question to answer, but I guess I'll close my eyes and pick Hoffman?”

“Alvarado can walk the bases loaded but still has the ability to gather himself and then strike out the side.”

“Everyone else seems shaky, Kimbrel especially looks cooked. Hoffman is OK but can't say I trust him in big playoff spots. The bullpen in general is an underrated concern for the playoffs I think.”

…

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🛼 Jimmy Rollins is dreaming about Mike Trout in Philly

• 🆒 The Phillies lost Sunday, but at least Ranger Suarez was good

• 🚰 Brandon Marsh has a different mentality and different swing that are paying dividends

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!