🔔 It's Overreaction Monday

_{LAST GAME: CARDINALS 6 - PHILLIES 5}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Zack Wheeler) vs. Braves (Kyle Wright)}

_{Today, 7:20 EDT | NBCSP, 94WIP}

Good morning. In terms of the scoreboard, it was a solid weekend for the Phillies. Aaron Nola turned in another rough start in a sloppy win on Friday night, while Seranthony Dominguez vs. crushing late-inning home runs continues to be a thing. Still, the Phillies received some timely hitting and a stellar start from Ranger Suárez to take two out of three in St. Louis and extend their lead for the top NL wild-card spot.

In the email today:

A thing that has been said, and will continued to be said over the next two weeks, is that the Phillies can’t win in the playoffs if [insert player name here] doesn’t get it together. Right now, the most frequent answers to that sentence are Aaron Nola, Seranthony Dominguez and J.T. Realmuto.

Whether or not such statements are actually true remains to be seen. Assuming the worst-case scenario for each player, is there a world where the October Phillies can outhit Nola’s mediocrity, hit around Realmuto’s dismal numbers with runners in scoring position, and survive Dominguez handing out high-leverage home runs like Halloween candy?

We’ll address that below, but first, a look at all three players following more struggles this weekend:

• Nola: He has yet to finish five innings in three starts September starts. In 13.2 IP this month, he has an 8.56 ERA and 1.90 WHIP, while opposing batters have hit .355 with a .969 OPS against. That’s like 2007 Adam Eaton stuff.

• Realmuto: After beginning the month with a modest five-game hitting streak, Realmuto is 4-for-32 (.125 BA) over his last eight games. He doesn’t have an extra-base hit since September 6.

• Dominguez: He has a 5.40 ERA in eight appearances this month. After surrendering an eighth-inning solo shot to Jordan Walker yesterday, Dominguez has yielded three home runs over his last five outings that have either tied a game or put the Phillies behind late.

Our take: We have to allow for the possibility that some combination of three talented baseball players find it for a series or two next month and give the Phillies something. But we also have to allow for the possibility they don’t.

The Phillies’ offense has functioned even without a consistent Realmuto, so it’s not unreasonable to think it can continue to do so. Verdict: Yes, they can survive.

Handing Dominguez the baseball in a tie game or while holding a one-run lead is flat-out playing with fire right now. Jeff Hoffman has pitched well enough to earn the primary right-handed setup role, so you have to hope his breakout season translates to October. Verdict: Maybe they can survive.

If Nola is what he is, and the Phillies give him a Game 2 start (and they probably will), the bats better show up. All of them. And all day. Verdict: Nola has to find something between now and next month or the Phillies’ postseason stay will be a short one.

2)🔎 Random Monday Observations

It’s a new week, so let’s take a deep breath, reset, and get ready for the final 13 regular season games with some quick observations.

• We have spent most of this month imagining a Phillies-Cubs first round postseason matchup. Not so fast. The Cubs, losers of five straight after getting swept by the Diamondbacks, may not even make the postseason. They host Pittsburgh and Colorado for six games this week before finishing with a six-game road trip to Atlanta and Milwaukee. It will be a tense two weeks in the Windy City.

• The NL wild card race has totally gone off the rails. Behind the Phillies, 5 teams are within 2.5 games of one another. It might be awhile before we know the Phillies’ first round opponent.

• It sure looks like that first round will be in South Philly. The Phillies hold a 3-game lead (4 in the loss column) with 13 to go.

• The Phillies and Braves meet for the final time in the regular season this week. I wonder if the Braves will be awake yet following their NL East title celebration. They weren’t this weekend in Miami where they were outscored 36-13 in a three-game sweep by the Marlins.

• The Phillies must go at least 9-4 the rest of the way to reach 90 wins. If they get there, it would be the just the Phillies’ sixth 90+ win season season since 1984.

3) 😒 Tweet of the Day: Broken Promises

In case you missed it, we had an all-time Phillies broadcast moment on Saturday night when John Kruk and Scott Franzke had this exchange:

The fight between laughter and restraint in Scott Franzke’s voice was perfect.

Next April, one-hour live show, Kruk + The Gateway Arch. It’s the only way to make this egregious breach of integrity right.

4)📊 Poll: Undivided Attention?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll [Bring Back Aaron Nola]:

Your replies…

“I’ve always liked Nola in Philly. It’s frustrating to know his potential and not see him live up to it but would rather have him on my team than not.”

“I’m open to bringing him back but am also curious if there is a trade or free agent available who could be (at least) a solid 3.”

“Painter’s injury, Abel’s inconsistency, and McGarry’s inability to locate the plate makes it a priority to bring Nola back, unfortunately. There is really no one else in the minors or free agency, considering the team is built to win now. The other option is a short deal with Lorenzen or someone of that ilk in free agency and hope that one of the minor leaguers progresses enough to take that spot. Not sure that Dombrowski will be satisfied with the cheaper option.”

“See ya. Enough is enough”

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• You can track the Phillies’ magic number here. 🪄

• Charlie Manuel suffered a stroke over the weekend, but the most recent reports are positive. Wishing him all the best. 🤞

• The Phillies promoted some interesting names to Lehigh Valley. 🚜

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!