🔔 Phillies' Offense Flexes Muscle in Wild Win

_{LAST GAME: Phillies 9 - Padres 7}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Michael Lorenzen) vs. Padres (Pedro Avila)}

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Things got a bit dicey late, but the Phillies’ 9-7 win over the Padres last night was decided early.

One day after getting no-hit for five innings in Milwaukee, the Phillies quickly pounded out 10 hits and put eight runs on the board through three innings. The early surge was enough to overcome a forgettable Taijuan Walker start and some tense moments courtesy of the Phillies’ bullpen over the final three innings.

The win helped the Phils maintain a 2 ½ game lead over the Cubs for the top wild-card spot. As for the Padres, they are probably cooked.

In the email today:

The Phillies went just 3-for-17 with runners in scoring position last night, but Alec Bohm set the tone early with a first-inning three-run double that had Padres starter Rich Hill instantly on the ropes. It was a big swing, one that added to his career-best numbers.

After 3+ seasons of everybody wondering what Bohm is or could be, the answer might just be that he is a damn good hitter.

A look at some key numbers following his 3-for-5 night:

• Bohm has already established career-highs in doubles, homers, RBI, and walks

• He’s currently on pace to finish with 32 doubles, 19 homers, 102 RBI, and 44 walks

• His increased power production isn’t coming at the expense of his sound approach— Bohm currently has a career-low strikeout rate (15.1%)

Our take: Bohm has established himself as a legitimate offensive threat this season, all while bouncing back-and-forth between corner infield spots. He’s 27 years old, so we don’t want to oversell his room for future growth, but is it possible that Bohm turns into a guy who puts up 25 homers and 60 extra-base hits per season while flirting with a .300 average? Such a projection would have seemed unlikely two years ago, but now? It’s not such a wild thought.

2) 🫤 Just Win, Baby?

I have no idea what to make of Taijuan Walker right now. He survived a five-inning slog after being staked an early 8-1 lead to earn his 15th win of the season.

On one hand, he is 15-5 and holds a 4.15 ERA through 27 starts. Walker has delivered the high-level results the Phillies asked for when they signed him to a four-year, $72 million contract last winter.

On the other hand, it feels like Walker is simply surviving his recent starts.

• In 18 first half starts, Walker posted a 4.02 ERA with a 1.25 WHIP while opposing hitters slashed .231/.307/.392

• In 9 second half starts, Walker has a 4.41 ERA with a 1.45 WHIP while opposing hitters are slashing .253/.341/.404

Our take: There is a world in which Walker finishes the regular season with 17 or 18 wins and isn’t part of a potential postseason rotation. 

His first inning struggles may be the deciding factor. Opponents have lit him up early. Walker has a 6.75 ERA in the first inning while opposing batters have hit .310 with an .883 OPS. Not only does he have a 9.00 ERA in the first inning since the All-Star break, opponents have plated a first inning run in seven of his nine starts.

3) 🤓 Tweet of the Day: WAR Is for Nerds!

Great question here from Destiny Lugardo of Phillies Nation. Not only is Kyle Schwarber on pace for 47 homers and 105 RBI, he’s also currently tracking 129 walks, which would tie Lenny Dykstra (1993) for the franchise’s single-season walk record.

4) 💧 Water Cooler: Pache or Rojas?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🤔 A closer look at a “weird season” for Kyle Schwarber

• 🔒 FanGraphs has the Phillies as a virtual lock to make the postseason

• 🔋The Phillies’ offense continues to surge— see where they stack up against the rest of the league

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!