🔔 The Phillies Will Be Tested Against the Marlins

_{LAST GAME: PHILLIES 9 - METS 1}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Zack Wheeler) vs. Marlins (Jesus Luzardo)}

_{Tuesday, Oct. 3, 2023, 8:08 EDT | ESPN, 94 WIP}

Good morning. I guess we’ll try the fish. It wasn’t exactly a weekend of meaningful Phillies baseball, but it was still a crazy few days that resulted in a (somewhat) unexpected playoff opponent in the Miami Marlins.

While the Marlins prepare for four (maybe three) hours of hell per night at Citizens Bank Park this week, the Phillies will prepare for plenty of left-handed pitching and a familiar foe that won the season series, 7-6.

Yes, this is a series the Phillies should win, but you’re probably not alone if you’re sweating the matchup this morning.

In the email today:

So, it won’t be a Diamondbacks-Phillies matchup after all, and I’m not sure that’s great news.

Arizona would have rolled into a Philly with a stopgap Game 1 starter and a bullpen occupied by totally average arms. Instead, the Marlins will arrive this week with plenty of pitching and confidence against a Phils team they always play tough.

That said, the Phillies still have the edge in talent, experience, and the propelling force of 44,000 fans who are ready to go crazy tomorrow night. That helps explain why the Phillies are a healthy -166 Game 1 favorite at DraftKings and roughly a 2-to-1 favorite at most online sportsbooks to win the series.

Jesus Luzardo will oppose Zack Wheeler in Game 1 before Braxton Garrett pairs up against Aaron Nola in Game 2.

Some early notes on the opener:

• The Phillies struggled against left-handed pitching earlier this season, but finished as one of the more productive lineups against southpaws. Their .779 OPS against lefties ranked 8th in all of baseball.

• Current Phillies haven’t had a ton of career success against Luzardo. They are hitting a collective .211 with a .602 OPS against him.

• In particular, Bryce Harper (1-for-9, 5K), J.T. Realmuto (1-for-13, 5K), Trea Turner (0-for-8, 2K) and Alec Bohm (1-for-11, 4K) have scuffled against the Marlins starter.

• Those with some success include Bryson Stott (4-for-5), Kyle Schwarber (2-for-7, 1 HR), and Edmundo Sosa (2-for-6, 2 HR).

• Historically speaking, the Marlins haven’t exactly lit up Wheeler, hitting a collective .250 with a .685 OPS.

• In 3 starts against Miami this season, Wheeler is 0-0 with a 3.00 ERA. Across 18 total innings, he yielded 15 hits and 4 walks while striking out 17. This season, the Marlins hit just .217 against him.

Our take: Wheeler is one of the best pitchers in all of baseball, while Luzardo and a slew of effective lefties out of the bullpen don’t exactly present a dream matchup for the Phillies’ lineup.

The high stakes and electric atmosphere of postseason baseball often render numbers like what’s laid out above worthless, but they do suggest that runs will likely be at a premium in Game 1.

2) 😴 In Case You Missed It

Unless you were invested in the return of Michael Plassmeyer or the pursuit of a 90-win season, you may not have been totally dialed into Phillies baseball this weekend. Can’t say I blame you.

If you happened to take a breather before the insanity of playoff baseball this week, here are some notes on what you might have missed:

• Kyle Schwarber finished his season with a career-best 47 homers. In two seasons with the Phillies (including playoffs), Schwarber has hit 99 total homers in 332 games. He has been a franchise-altering signing.

• Alec Bohm swatted his 20th homer of the season Sunday. That means 6 Phillies finished the season with 20+ home runs: Schwarber (47) Nick Castellanos (29), Trea Turner (26), Bryce Harper (21), J.T. Realmuto (20), and Bohm (20). If you can’t remember a Phillies team ever doing this, it’s because they haven’t.

• The Phillies finished 8th among MLB teams with 220 homers, but they hit the second-most home runs (121) of any MLB team following the All-Star break.

• It was a strong finish to the season for the bullpen. In 2 games Saturday, Phils relievers threw 5 1/3 scoreless innings, allowing just 2 hits and 1 walk while striking out 11. On Sunday, Nick Nelson (who won’t be on the postseason roster) took down the bulk of outs, but Matt Strahm, Michael Lorenzen, Gregory Soto, and Seranthony Dominguez each had scoreless appearances.

3) 🆚 Tweet of the Day: Better Than Ever?

4)📊 Poll: So, How Are You Feeling This Morning?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

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Results from our last poll: How concerned would you be about a matchup with the Diamondbacks:

Your replies…

We’re going to skip the replies on this one since, you know, it doesn’t matter now.

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🕰️ Here is the full schedule for the first round of the 2023 MLB Postseason.

• 🐟 Here are 3 reasons the Phillies shouldn’t overlook the Marlins.

• 🌡️ How is Aaron Nola is feeling ahead of his postseason start this week?

• 🤔 Could Weston Wilson have a postseason role? What about the bullpen construction? A closer look at looming roster decisions.

• 🎙️ If the Phillies win it all, you can thank Jack Fritz.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!