🔔 Phillies-Braves NLDS Preview

This Isn't David and Goliath

Author

Bob Wankel
October 06, 2023

🔔

LAST GAME: PHILLIES 7 - MARLINS 1

NEXT GAME: Phillies (Ranger Suarez) vs. Braves (Spencer Strider)

Saturday, Oct. 7, 6:07 EDT | TBS, 94 WIP

Good morning. The Phillies are in Atlanta today preparing for their Game 1 NLDS showdown with the Braves. Nothing official yet, but it feels certain the Phillies will hand the ball to Ranger Suarez. The heavily-favored Braves will likely counter with Spencer Strider. The immediate goal for the Phillies? Get the series back to Citizens Bank Park tied. Do that, and this thing could get weird — fast.

In the email today:

  1. 😳 Sizing Up the Big Bad Braves

  2. 🪨 This Isn’t David vs. Goliath

  3. 🍻 Meme of the Day: Let’s Have a Weekend

  4. 📊 Poll: What Do You Expect in Game 1?

  5. 🔗 Link Roundup

1)😳 NLDS Preview: The Big Bad Braves

The Braves were baseball’s best team this season, so it shouldn’t be terribly surprising they are the biggest favorite in any of Saturday’s four Game 1s. That said, most sportsbooks have the Phillies around +145 to win the series, a roughly 41% probability. Not exactly insurmountable odds.

Still, the Braves, if you haven’t heard, are good. Like legit good. Sure, the standings show Atlanta came across the finish line 14 games ahead of the Phillies, but I’m not sure the standings alone adequately summarize what the Braves managed to do this season.

Let’s look at what the Phillies are up against in this series.

  • The Braves are the first team in MLB history to finish the season with a slugging percentage over .500. Not this season or decade. Ever.

  • 5 Braves hitters finished the season with slugging percentages over .500. Matt Olson (.604), Ronald Acuna (.596), Marcell Ozuna (.558), Austin Riley (.516) and Ozzie Albies (.513).

  • Comparatively, the Phillies didn’t have a single player slug at least .500. Bryce Harper (.499) came close, while Nick Castellanos (.476) and Kyle Schwarber (.474) were next best.

  • The Braves led MLB with 307 homers this season, tying the 2019 Twins for the single-season record. On the bright side, do you remember a single thing about the 2019 Minnesota Twins?

  • For the first time in franchise history, 6 Phillies slugged at least 20 homers. That’s awesome, but the Braves had 7 players do it, 5 of which hit at least 33 homers.

  • The Braves finished the regular season 1st in BA (.276), OBP (.344), SLG (.501) and OPS (.845).

Our take: Not bad. That’s a lot of power, so they probably strikeout A TON, right? No. The Braves actually were near the bottom of the league in K% — despite posting a better slugging percentage as a team than Bryce Harper this season.

With Suarez expected to start Game 1, it’s worth mentioning the Braves had an .871 OPS against LHP this season. The Astros finished 2nd with an .809 OPS.

The biggest take away from the above numbers, for me, is the Braves’ offensive consistency. Below, I’m going to show you some numbers that will make you feel better about the Phillies’ chances in this series, but it should be noted how dominant this Atlanta lineup was from start to finish.

2)🪨 This Isn’t a David and Goliath Story

My bad. I didn’t mean to kill the vibes heading into the weekend, so let me add this to the above notes — the Phillies do not need an act of God to win this series — and the reasons have nothing to do with last season.

  • Since Aug. 1, the Braves led MLB with 107 home runs. Wait. You know what other team hit 107 homers? The Phillies — and they did it in two fewer games played.

  • In fact, since Aug. 1 — right around the time Bryce Harper regained his form and Trea Turner became, well, Trea Turner — the Phillies offense has run with baseball’s best lineups.

  • Over their final 56 games of the season, the Phillies were 6th in BA (.259), 6th in OBP (.337), 2nd in SLG (.488) and 3rd in OPS (.825).

Our take: Don’t try to turn the Phillies into baseball’s “Rocky” ahead of this series. They’re the defending National League Champions. They’re better than last year’s team. They also have the offensive firepower to hit with the Braves.

One other thing — pitching matters. Strider certainly has an advantage over Suarez, but you don’t have to wave red pompoms to feel good about Zack Wheeler against Max Fried and his blistered finger in Game 2 or Aaron Nola against Bryce Elder (I guess?) in Game 3.

The Phillies also hold the bullpen advantage. Since July 1, the Phils have a 3.08 bullpen ERA. The Braves are nearly a full run worse at 4.06. For fans of WAR, the Phillies have the 3rd best of any bullpen since 7/1 (3.6). That’s more than double the 11th-ranked Braves (1.4).

3) 💰🍻 Tweet of the Day: Let’s Have a Weekend

4)📊 Poll: Game 1 Confidence Meter

What do you expect to happen in Game 1?

Choose an answer below.

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Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll (Will the Phillies Beat the Braves?):

The readers are confident!

Your replies…

“This team just has that feel. No one in the lineup is intimidated by the moment. It takes 1 win in ATL, and then the wave at CBP takes off.”

“Sometimes you just have to believe!”

“The Braves will always be choking dogs, until they prove otherwise, which will not be this October!”

“The Braves are obviously a great team and I'm obviously biased, but I just can't turn off the part of my brain that says the momentum the Phillies have is just too much. It's not just us, either, national media is quickly picking up on Red October and the Phillies' vibes. It feels like there's a lot more to this story.”

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!