🔔 It All Starts Tonight

_{LAST GAME: PHILLIES 3 - BRAVES 1}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Zack Wheeler) vs. Diamondbacks (Zac Gallen) | Today, 8:07 EDT TBS, 94 WIP}

Good afternoon. I am sure today’s (delayed) send finds you in the midst of a truly productive and meaningful workday. As we look to pass the final hours before the NLCS Game 1 matchup between the Phillies and Diamondbacks, I’m wondering something: Is anyone actually nervous for this series?

Typically, when this city puffs out its collective chest, there’s an internal feeling of dread and worry lurking beneath the bravado. I don’t get that sense right now. Let’s see what happens when this thing gets started tonight.

In the email today:

I know I said it doesn’t feel like anyone is nervous for this series, but I do not want to be blamed for any jinxes, so let be clear:

1) Zac Gallen is good.

2) The Diamondbacks are a worthy opponent.

In fact, Arizona is a 5-0 this season (4-0 on the road) while outscoring the Brewers and Dodgers by a 30-11 margin.

Here’s a brief look at what to know about both the Diamondbacks and Gallen ahead of Game 1:

• The Phillies have a 32.9% chance of winning the World Series, per FanGraphs. That is the highest among all 4 remaining teams.

• The Phillies are -175 to win the National League, per DraftKings. That is a 63.64% implied win probability.

• Arizona is second among all playoff teams with a .530 slugging percentage and .877 OPS this postseason. The Phillies rank No. 1 in both categories.

• The Phillies and Diamondbacks lead all postseason teams with 13 homers.

• The Diamondbacks’ bats have heated up at the right time, as they were a rather pedestrian regular season offense. They finished the season 14th in batting average and on-base percentage and 17th in SLG% and OPS. They finished 22nd in homers.

• Arizona has a 2.20 ERA in 5 postseason games while holding hitters to a .232 BA. By comparison, Phillies pitching has a 1.53 ERA while holding hitters to a .188 BA.

• Gallen is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA over 11 1/3 IP. He’s allowed 10 hits and 5 walks. Small sample size and all, but his 4.0 BB/9 is 2x the 2.0 BB/9 he posted during the regular season.

• Gallen was not nearly as good on the road as he was at home this season. In 18 road starts, he posted a 4.42 ERA (2.47 ERA at home). Meanwhile 15 of the 22 homers he surrendered this season came away from Chase Field, this despite make just two more road starts.

• ERA isn’t always an accurate reflection of performance, so it’s worth noting that Gallen also had worse road numbers in almost every key statistical category:

2)🔮 Let’s Make Some NLCS Predictions

Do you want to read more about how Zac Gallen is from South Jersey and went to Bishop Eustace?

Zzz…

I don’t know about you, but I’ve had my fill of the build-up fluff before this series.

(Gallen was a Cardinals fan, by the way.)

It’s business time. Let’s make some predictions.

• NLCS MVP: Kyle Schwarber hasn’t hit a home run since Sept. 30. He’s 4-for-25 (.160 BA) and has walked just once while striking out 10 times this postseason. He is my pick for MVP. Keep in mind, Schwarber hit 0 home runs during the Wild Card round and NLDS last postseason. So much of the Phillies’ season has followed the ‘22 script, so I’ll roll with another Schwarber NLCS power surge here.

• Series prediction: I’ll take Zack Wheeler and Aaron Nola up against Zac Gallen and Merrill Kelly every day of the week, but it’s not that lopsided of a matchup. Given how well Arizona has played this month, I’ll allow for something goofy to happen that sends this series west tied 1-1. The Phillies should have a distinct advantage with Ranger Suarez in Game 3. Given the Diamondbacks don’t even have a 4th starter, whatever game plan the Phillies cobble together should give them an advantage. Ultimately, I think the series gets back to Philly for a Game 6 and Nola shuts it down there.

• Game 1 prediction: Wheeler has a 2.59 ERA in 48 2/3 postseason innings, but that doesn’t do his performance justice. He has an eye-popping 0.719 WHIP across 8 postseason starts. It has been a great postseason for underdogs, but I wouldn’t bet against Wheeler tonight.

3) 😩 Tweet of the Day: Better Get Your Endurance Up

Circle Wednesday. It’s a big one. Nothing one day lots of water and some vegetables can’t fix.

4)📊 Poll: Who Wins NLCS MVP?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

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Results from our last poll (What’s Your First Take on the NLCS?):

The people are confident. Are they too confident?

Your replies…

“I remain unimpressed with the Dbacks. We just smacked the best regular season team and looked good doing so. Fightins in 5”

“This team is special. I can't imagine a world where we trounce the Braves and struggle versus the Diamondbacks.”

“Gallen and Kelly do not have good road ERAs and they won't survive CBP during Red October. The Diamondbacks bullpen stinks and so do their #3 and #4. Phillies in 5!!!!”

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• The Phillies see some of themselves in the Diamondbacks.

• It’s hype video season. Here’s Shane Victorino to get you fired up.

• The Phillies gathered — and maintained — a number of high velocity relievers.

• The Diamondbacks’ running game will provide a challenge.

• Everyone is picking the Phillies to win. Almost.

• Nick Castellanos gives an interesting answer on the Phillies’ style of play.

• Trea Turner reflects on the night his season changed.

• Get set for Game 1 with the latest episode of Crossed Up: A Phillies Podcast.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!