🔔 The Thing About First Impressions

_{LAST GAME: Nationals 3 - Phillies 2}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Spencer Turnbull, 0.00 ERA) vs. Cardinals (Miles Mikolas, 6.10 ERA) | Today, 7.45 p.m. EDT | NCBSP, 94 WIP}

Good (late) morning. Sorry for the delay. With a win yesterday, the Phillies would have swept their first road series of a season for the first time in 23 years. Instead, they scored two runs, allowed five stolen bases and committed yet another baserunning blunder in a 3-2 loss. Still, with two wins on their current six-game road trip, they have already surpassed their 1-5 start away from Citizens Bank Park last season.

A dash of positivity for you this morning.

In the email today:

Remember Opening Day when Matt Strahm, Jose Alvarado and Connor Brogdon lit Zack Wheeler’s masterpiece on fire in the seventh and eighth innings of a 9-3 loss to the Braves? It was an awful first impression, sure, but it also seems like a thing of the past.

Here’s how the bullpen has stacked up in seven games dating back to Easter Sunday:

• fWAR: 0.7 (1st)

• FIP: 2.14 (1st)

• K%: 31.1 (1st)

• K/9: 11.08 (3rd)

• K/BB: 4/1 (3rd)

• WHIP: 0.96 (5th)

• Batting average against: .179 (7th)

• ERA: 2.42 (8th)

Take away that disastrous Connor Brogdon inning against the Reds last Monday, and here’s the bullpen line during that time frame: 25.1 IP, 16 H, 4 ER, 5 BB, 30 K. With Brogdon now a member of the Dodgers, current Phillies relievers have posted a 1.42 ERA and 0.83 WHIP over the last seven games.

Our take: That will play. Perhaps evaluating an entire unit after an Opening Day meltdown and some struggles in mop-up duty in game No. 2 was a bit of an overreaction. Perhaps this bullpen is actually good, and it figures to get stronger this week when Orion Kerkering comes off the injured list. The 23-year-old faced five batters in a rehab appearance with Clearwater on Friday night, striking out four of the five.

2) 📓 6 Weekend Observations

There was plenty to digest from the Phillies’ weekend series in Washington.

Along with some other thoughts, here’s what I’m noticing this morning:

• It has been a tough go of it for Trea Turner at the plate, and a downright concerning start for him defensively. After committing a career-worst 23 errors a season ago, he has already made three errors in nine games this season. Whether it’s a simple tag play or making routine throws and stops, everything looks difficult for him right now. At -2 defensive runs saved (per FanGraphs), Turner is tied with five others for the game’s second worst mark among shortstops. The physical ability is obviously there, but you do wonder if he can’t clean it up at what point the Phillies consider making some defensive adjustments.

• Before Spencer Strider’s injury over the weekend, the Atlanta ace was the NL Cy Young favorite at +450 odds, ahead of Zack Wheeler at +700. With Strider’s immediate future looking bleak, Wheeler is now the favorite at +450 (odds per DraftKings).

• Maybe Strider’s injury alters the division outlook, but Atlanta used two huge comebacks and a stellar start by Chris Sale to sweep the Diamondbacks this past weekend and improve to 6-2 overall. Oddsmakers don’t seem bothered by the injury news either. The Braves are currently -425 at DraftKings to win the division.

• The Phillies’ baserunning woes continued Sunday when Kyle Schwarber was doubled up on a fly ball to center field. As I noted in a piece for Crossing Broad last week, the Phillies’ baserunning was also dreadful early last season, but they managed to clean it up as the season progressed. By my count, they have run into six outs in their last seven games. That can’t happen for any team, let alone one that’s tied with the 1-9 Miami Marlins at 4.0 runs per game.

• I noted some standout bullpen numbers in the top story today, but the Phillies are also benefiting from excellent starting pitching. Their staff 0.97 WHIP ranks second, 2.68 ERA ranks fifth, and their 1.1 fWAR ranks third.

• If it feels like Phils outfielders have been off to a brutal start at the plate, well, they have. Their collective .497 OPS is the third-worst in baseball and their .230 slugging percentage is dead-last.

3) 🙄 Tweet of the Day: Phillies Postgame Live Stays on Brand

Michael Barkann: “To me, this is a game that separates the men from the boys. Sure, they got the series, but if you have your designs on going deep in the postseason, you win a game like this…”

A completely sane and rational take by Michael, for sure.

The Phillies were sloppy, no doubt, but maybe let’s pump the brakes a bit. For some context, the 2022 Phillies were 4-5 through nine games while last year’s team was 3-6. Each team found its way to October.

I would expect someone who missed out on their five-team parlay because the Phillies didn’t complete the sweep to conclude they are pretenders on April 7. Actually, come to think of it, this is exactly what I expect from Phillies Postgame Live as well.

Way to stay true to the brand, I guess.

4)📊 Poll Question: Any Concerns?

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

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Results from our last poll [What should the Phillies do in CF?]:

Your replies…

“I want Rojas to succeed but damn. It seems after the first week his bat in important situations has hurt us more than his elite glove has helped. Send him down, Marsh and Pache are good defenders and can’t be worse at the plate. Triple A is a large quality drop but success breeds success. Pressure is real, maybe he finds it maybe he doesn’t. ”

“It’s only been six games, give him (Rojas) some time. Besides, like the April 5 newsletter said, the righties like Turner, Castellanos, etc. need to figure it out.”

“Everyone acted like it was a foregone conclusion last season that Rojas would be the everyday CF. He’s still an unproven rookie and needs more development. This isn’t a veteran hitting in a slump, and we shouldn’t be waiting for him to “figure it out”. He needs more development time.”

Our take: There are some patient folks out there, but it seems most want Brandon Marsh in center on a more consistent basis. Stay tuned.

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🥶 It wasn’t a great first start for Mick Abel.

• ✌️ The Phillies traded Connor Brogdon to Los Angeles. Here’s more on the deal.

• 💰 Shane Bieber. Spencer Strider. Eury Perez. Arm injuries are a major problem. What gives?

• 🚫 Trea Turner thought his ninth-inning fly out yesterday was gone.

• 🏥 Taijuan Walker (shoulder) threw three simulated innings over the weekend. He could be back by early May.

• 👋 Sonny Gray will make his Cardinals debut against the Phillies tomorrow night.

The newsletter today was written by Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!