🛎️ Is Tonight the Night?

_{LAST GAME: Phillies 5 - Mets 2}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Aaron Nola) vs. Pirates (TBD)}

_{Today, 6:40 EDT | NBCSP, 94 WIP}

Good morning. Tonight should be the night the Phillies punch their ticket to the 2023 MLB Postseason. A win over the Pirates gets it done, but a loss by the Cubs, Marlins or Diamondbacks also means plenty of postgame beers in the clubhouse.

Start clearing your calendars for next Tuesday, Wednesday and Thursday (if necessary).

In the email today:

Things are lining up just about as well as they possibly could for the Phillies.

Barring catastrophe this week, they will be able to get some work in and get some rest in preparation for their first-round matchup. Seemingly, the only unknown variable is their first-round opponent.

Here’s what we know going into the final week:

• The Padres and Giants haven’t technically been eliminated yet, but both teams figure to be officially out of the picture in the next day or two. It’s just a matter of time.

• The Reds are 2 ½ games out and need a huge week to sneak in. It’s possible but unlikely. Even then, their most likely landing spot would be the No. 6 seed, keeping them away from the Phillies.

• That leaves the Cubs, Diamondbacks, or Marlins as the Phillies’ likely postseason matchup. Both the Diamondbacks and Cubs currently lead the Marlins by 1 game.

Our take: According to Baseball Reference, the Diamondbacks are currently the Phillies’ most-likely first-round opponent.

Arizona has three games with the White Sox in Chicago this week before returning home for a three-game set with an Astros team that’s fighting for its postseason life. The Cubs finish with six games on the road in Atlanta and Milwaukee, while the Marlins finish on the road against the Mets and Pirates.

If I had to take a stab at it, I’d guess we’re getting Phillies-Diamondbacks. We’ll save the previews and forecasts for later in the week.

2)🎵 Finish on a High Note

While the Phillies should be able to sit back and relax as the rest of the National League Wild Card hopefuls scramble this week, there are a few players that could use a strong finish:

• Bryson Stott has had a great season, but he’s limping to the finish line. Over his last 15 games, he’s 9-for-55 (.164 BA) with a .501 OPS. Given he went just 6-for-44 last October, it would be nice to see him get things rolling ahead of next week.

• Brandon Marsh is another player who’s going through it right now. He’s 6-for-41 over his last 15 games, and he’s really struggling to put his bat on the ball right now. He’s struck out a staggering 24 times in those 41 at-bats.

• Aaron Nola gets the ball against Pittsburgh tonight, and I’m not sure that any possible outcome will change the view on him heading into a likely Game 2 start. His first three starts this month were simply dismal before bouncing back with an encouraging outing against the Braves. We’ll take any positive signs we can get from Nola right now, so it would be nice to see another encouraging start tonight.

Our take: Some timely hitting and fantastic finishes from players like Nick Castellanos have overshadowed the slumps of Stott and Marsh, but their at-bats are worth monitoring this week. While it’s entirely possible that one or both players simply flip the switch and mash in the playoffs, some quality at-bats over the next few days wouldn’t hurt.

3)☺️ Tweet of the Day: Some Wholesome Content

4)📊 Poll: Choose Your Preferred Opponent

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll: Should the Phillies include Orion Kerkering on the postseason roster?

Your replies…

“Bullpen could really use the lift - and teams haven’t seen him to get a first hand look at him. Will take all the extra arms that I can - especially with Dominguez so inconsistent”

“Pumping the brakes is no doubt the wise decision, but that kind of nasty stuff plays... especially the first time other playoff teams have to face it in the batter's box. Orion shines brightly in the fall.”

“I had a blast watching Orion's debut, he even had me teary-eyed. However, his first inning in the majors against a completely gutted Mets team does not mean that he is ready for Red October against the best teams in baseball. Don't put too much pressure on this kid too fast, his stuff is too good to not protect him in this development period. ”

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🔋 Bryce Harper’s power is back. He’s happy with where he’s at heading into the playoffs.

• 👍 Pitching prospect Mick Abel made a solid Lehigh Valley debut last night.

• 🥹 Orion Kerkering’s father discusses his emotional response to watching his son’s MLB debut. 💰

• 🤪 Tuesday is set to be a wild day around Major League Baseball.

• 😲 MLB Now breaks down Bryce Harper’s clutch gene.

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!