🔔 Topping the Charts

_{LAST GAME: PHILLIES 5 - Giants 4}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Zack Wheeler, 1.91 ERA) vs. Giants (Mason Black, -.--) | Today, 4.05 p.m. EDT | NCBSP, 94 WIP}

Good morning. With a 24-11 record and the best mark in baseball, the Phillies will likely find themselves at or near the top of MLB power rankings this week. Might they also soon be at the top of the Billboard Hot 100? We’ll see, but the Phillies are indeed staying loose and sexy in the midst of their best start through 35 games since the 1995 season.

Later today, they will try to win their 10th straight home game when Zack Wheeler (on normal rest) opposes Scranton native and childhood Phillies fan Mason Black, who is making his MLB debut.

In the email today:

Aside from Trea Turner’s absence, it’s hard to imagine a much better start for the Phillies right now. The starting pitching has been outstanding, the hitting timely and the wins? Quite plentiful.

Here are five things to know before the Phillies go for their sixth straight win later this afternoon:

• Just how good have the Phillies been? Their 24-11 start through 35 games is better than the 23-12 start by the 2011 team that won a franchise-record 102 regular season games. It’s also better than the 20-15 record of both the 1980 and 2008 World Series teams.

• In fact, since 1940 (I didn’t feel like going back any further, won’t lie), only the 1977 (26-9) and 1993 (25-10) teams were better. The 1979 and 1995 Phillies were also 24-11. Most other teams were nowhere close. The Phillies aren’t just off to a good start. In context of this franchise’s history, the 2024 Phillies are off to a generationally-good start.

• Can they keep it going? We’ll see, but none of their next four opponents following the Giants own a winning record: Blue Jays (16-19), Marlins (10-26), Mets (16-18), Nationals (17-17). They don’t see a team that currently owns a winning record until the Rangers visit CBP on May 21.

• I’ve seen some Braves fans online recently point to the Phillies’ easy schedule to help cope with the current standings. It is true that the Phillies have benefited from a weak schedule to this point. According to ESPN’s Relative Power Index, the .458 combined winning percentage of Phils’ opponents is the third-worst in baseball.That said, it’s not like Atlanta has exactly endured a gauntlet. Braves opponents have compiled a .488 winning percentage, making for the 10th easiest schedule to date.

• The Phillies (+41) moved into second in run differential among NL teams over the weekend, trailing only the Dodgers (+63). They leapfrogged the Braves, who just wrapped a 1-5 west coast trip. It included a three-game sweep by the Dodgers in which the Braves were outscored by a 20-6 margin.

2) 📓 Observations, News and Notes

• Per FanGraphs, the 1.4 WAR compiled by Phillies relievers ranks fourth in MLB, this despite a 4.84 ERA which ranks 24th. Perhaps positive regression is in progress. Last Monday, the bullpen held a 5.54 ERA (29th). Over the last five games, Phillies relievers have combined for 1.47 ERA while pitching to this line: 18.1 IP, 19 H, 3 ER, 4 BB, 21 K.

• The best arm of the bunch has been Jeff Hoffman, who is up to 11 consecutive scoreless appearances. Since April 10, Hoffman has allowed just six hits and two walks against 17 strikeouts. Opponents are hitting .167 with a .488 OPS in that time.

• Bryce Harper launched what turned out to be a game-deciding three-run blast last night, but most agree he hasn’t fully hit his stride yet. Even with his up-and-down start, Harper is projected to finish with 32 homers, 97 RBI and 111 walks.

• Despite currently hitting just .234, Harper holds a .368 on-base percentage. He’s 5th in MLB with 24 walks and his 17.6 percent walk rate leads all qualified hitters.

• According to FanGraphs, the Phillies currently have a 26.9 percent chance of winning the NL East. While not exactly a favorable projection, they began the season at just 6.8 percent. The Baseball Reference model is a bit more bullish on the Phillies, giving them a 37 percent chance of winning the division.

• Alec Bohm might eventually cool off, but he hasn’t yet. His hitting streak is up to 18 games, best in MLB this season. In those 18 games, Bohm is 32-for-69 with three homers, 11 doubles and 22 RBI. He’s reached base in exactly half of his 76 plate appearances, helping him post an absurd 1.254 OPS.

• Per FanDuel, Bohm (+2000) has the sixth-best odds to win NL MVP. He trails Mookie Betts (+145), Shohei Ohtani (+500), Elly De La Cruz (+1200), Ronald Acuna Jr. (+1200) and Fernando Tatis Jr. (+1200).

• Speaking of Acuna Jr., it would take some “back of the baseball card” projection to lock him in right now. After hitting .337 with 41 homers a year ago, Acuna is currently batting just .267 with two homers through his first 32 games.

• He’s not the only high-profile Atlanta hitter struggling either. After swatting an MLB-best 54 homers in 2023, Matt Olson has just three homers this season. His batting average is down from .283 to .197 while his slugging percentage has plummeted from .604 to .359. Fortunately, Braves fans are taking things in stride:

3)🎸 Tweet of the Day: For Those About to Rock

What else could it possibly be?

4)📊 Poll Question: The Rotation “Problem”

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response Friday.

…

Results from our last poll [Just how good are the Phillies?]:

Your replies…

“They're definitely 3-5 right now... but do they have what it takes to graduate to the best team in baseball? They absolutely do.”

“Let’s not get nuts until they play other top teams (and beat them).”

“If the pitching holds while the bats continue to heat up? Definitely best team in baseball vibes, but my guess is the pitching falls off at least a little bit (I mean it has to, right?) so 3-5 range makes the most sense. Also, Braves have owned the division for the 6 years. Until the Phillies are at the top of the division by a few games, hard to say they are the best team in baseball.”

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• 🏆 Read about the Phils’ latest victory.

• 🙄 Michael Barkann was worried about Brandon Marsh’s TV appearance.

• 🍿 Here’s a cool look from the seats of Bryce Harper’s three-run blast.

• 😅 Fear not, the 2024 Phillies are not the 1995 Phillies.

• ❤️ Great read here on Bryce Harper and his bond with Philadelphia.

• ⛽️ The Phillies want more fastballs from Orion Kerkering.

The newsletter today was written by Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!