🔔 It Could Have Been Worse

_{LAST GAME: PHILLIES 5 - Braves 4}

_{NEXT GAME: Reds (Andrew Abbott) vs. Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez) | April 1, 6:40 EDT | NBCSP+, 94WIP}

Good morning. They say hope springs eternal — unless, of course, you’re in Philadelphia and the baseball team loses its first two games of the season. Hopefully those panicked over a hideous start to the weekend regained some optimism after the Phillies overcame a late deficit yesterday to knock off the Braves and earn their first win of the season. Take a deep breath. Exhale. Let’s proceed.

In the email today:

I won’t act like social media is a completely accurate representation of how all fans view their teams, but, man, it was rough out there in the hours following the opener. Allow me to paraphrase a summary:

Best bullpen in baseball? LOL. The manager is a clown, they’ll never go anywhere with him. Same old Phillies — still losers.

Let’s send it over to Facebook, where the discourse is always measured and rational.

Look, I frankly find the people who constantly feel the need to remind everyone it’s early to be annoying, as if reacting to or forming an opinion about games played prior to Memorial Day is unsophisticated.

The Phillies matter to people. Those people are amped up for the start of the season. They want to see what these guys have. Getting off to a fast start was the big talking point all spring, so for fans to watch these guys come up here and get pantsed for two days by the Braves, some degree of aggravation is understandable.

At the same time, we’ve got to find some balance here. This is not the NFL and it shouldn’t be consumed as such.

For instance, the Phillies’ bullpen was a mess on Friday. There’s no doubt 13 baserunners and 9 earned runs in just three innings of work is comically bad. But yesterday, five Phillies relievers held the same powerful Atlanta offense to just one run over four innings. Both Matt Strahm and Jose Alvarado, who were admittedly a mess in the opener, were especially sharp.

So which is it? Is this bullpen likely to be the downfall of what is otherwise a World Series contender, or is it a group that has legitimate potential and could ultimately form into one of the game’s best groups? Does one game carry more weight than the other?

It wasn’t exactly a stellar weekend for the Phillies, but it could have been much worse. Though not ideal, it’s true. The Braves outscored the Phillies by a 21-7 margin and outhit them 32-13 through two games. It was the Phillies’ ugliest start to a season since…2023 when the Rangers outscored them by 17 runs over the first two games. That came before a Texas sweep and 1-5 start, which should serve as some important context when trying to digest this past weekend. Get angry. Get excited — but keep at least one eye on the big picture.

There was a lot to unpack throughout a weekend that featured plenty of rough moments along with a few key reasons for optimism.

Here’s some of what stood out to me:

• The Phillies had to be encouraged by what they saw from Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez over the weekend. Wheeler’s line (6IP, 5H, 0R, 0BB, 5K) speaks for itself, while Suarez was more impressive than his final line indicates (5IP, 3H, 3ER, 1BB, 7K). Ozzie Albies got him in the first for a two-run shot, but Suarez made a good pitch and actually ran into some bad luck — the homer carried a .150 expected batting average. The only other mistake came on a two-out single to Adam Duvall which plated the Braves’ third run.

• Speaking of which, I’m surprised Rob Thomson had Suarez challenge Duvall in that spot with Michael Harris II on deck. Suarez has dominated Harris throughout his his career, holding him to one hit in 18 at-bats.

• I was also surprised how Thomson approached Duvall during a key at-bat Friday in the seventh with two runners aboard and one away. Protecting a two-run lead, Thomson elected to leave Strahm in for Duvall, who promptly roped a game-tying double to left. For those of you that follow me, I’m not typically into picking apart a manager’s every single tactical move, but these decisions seemed exceedingly questionable in the moment.

• I don’t have much for you on the Aaron Nola start. He didn’t miss enough bats, the Braves found some holes and pounded a few of his mistakes. He wasn’t sharp, and if the start wasn’t made by Nola — a guy who always generates the most extreme of takes — we wouldn’t be overanalyzing anything happening on March 30. So, let’s not.

• Johan Rojas deserves credit for busting it down the line in the seventh inning yesterday. His hustle kept the inning alive, helping spark a game-deciding three-run rally. That said…

• Rojas didn’t exactly do much to calm any concerns about his offense. He was 0-for-8 with a walk and two strikeouts. The six balls he put in play had an average exit velocity of 75.4 mph. That’s some pretty weak contact.

• Every injury matters. We already saw the impact of some fringe roster-shuffling this past weekend. With Taijuan Walker and Orion Kerkering both sidelined, the Phillies opted to fill out the bullpen with Connor Brodgon, Yunior Marte and Luis Ortiz. Now, with Ortiz sidelined for at least the next two weeks, Nick Nelson is here. It’s April, the Phillies will be conservative with how they use the top guys in this bullpen, and they need some of their lower-leverage arms to step up.

• Kyle Schwarber looks healthier (and quicker). You could see it when he went first to third on Trea Turner’s game-tying single in the seventh inning yesterday.

3)🐰 Tweet of the Day: Happy Easter, Everybody!

That’s harsh, but probably fair. I respect it.

4) 📊 Poll: What a Difference a Weekend Makes

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll: What do you expect from the Phillies this season?

Your replies…

“As Richie Ashburn used tom say, the Phillies are due!”

“They will stumble into the playoffs but the book is out on the hitters who will continue to entertain their fetish of swinging at everything low and away.”

“This is the year.”

“Weird take but I want to put it out there: Can we leave the "Said" guy in 2023? The old clip is fine, I guess, but dude shouldn't be making appearances in 2024.”

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• ❤️ Help support what could become a true Philadelphia love story.

• 🔥The 2024 NL Cy Young race got off to a riveting start.

• 🥱 Brandon Marsh started only once against Atlanta. How do the Phillies view him?

• 🚨 Rhys Hoskins destroyed the Mets over the weekend. Chaos erupted. Suspensions ensued.

• 📉 FanGraphs gives the Phillies a 5.9% chance of winning the NL East.

The newsletter today was written by Bob Wankel (Follow on X).

Thanks for reading!