🔔 Zack Wheeler Looks Postseason Ready

_{LAST GAME: Phillies 5 - Padres 1}

_{NEXT GAME: Phillies (Cristopher Sanchez) vs. Marlins (TBD)}

_{Friday Sep 8, 7:05 EDT | NBCSP, 94 WIP}

Good morning. Behind a dominant outing from Zack Wheeler, the Phillies knocked off the Padres, 5-1, to secure a series win and finish their six-game road trip at 3-3. Could have been better. Could have been worse.

Wheeler held an overmatched lineup scoreless through six innings before the bullpen nailed down the final nine outs without much drama.

The Phils’ lead was built by solo shots from Kyle Schwarber and J.T. Realmuto, while Bryce Harper ended a career-worst 0-for-20 slump with a key two-run double in the fifth inning.

In the email today:

With 23 games remaining, the Phillies have to answer a few questions about the starting rotation. Zack Wheeler is not one of them. It’s not just that he kept the Padres off the board for six innings, it’s how he did it.

San Diego managed only one hit and a pair of walks, while Wheeler generated whiffs on 19 of the 50 hacks the Padres took against him.

The Phillies’ ace has hit some bumps in the road along the way this season, but his overall numbers now illustrate what we already knew — he’s one of the best pitchers in the sport.

• In 10 starts since the All-Star break, Wheeler has a 2.60 ERA (5th), .185 BAA (5th), 0.82 WHIP (1st), 73 strikeouts (third), while throwing 65 2/3 innings (3rd).

• Wheeler currently leads all MLB pitchers with 5.7 fWAR.

• While he’s only 17th in baseball with a 3.49 ERA this season, he’s third in xERA and fourth in FIP. In other words, he’s generally pitched better than his results would indicate.

Our take: Wheeler is rolling right now. While he remains comfortably behind the likes on Blake Snell, Justin Steele, Spencer Strider, and Zac Gallen in the odds to win the NL Cy Young, his late-season surge should at least put him in the conversation.

2) 💪🏻 Kyle Schwarber: King of the Leadoff Spot

You still may not think Kyle Schwarber should hit leadoff because your middle school baseball team put the fast kid at the top and let him beat out three-hoppers to short… but Schwarber now owns an impressive Phillies record.

He took Michael Wacha’s fourth pitch of the game and blasted it 465 feet at 112 mph off the bat to give the Phillies a quick 1-0 lead. With his 10th leadoff blast of the season, Schwarber passed Jimmy Rollins for the Phillies’ single-season record.

Schwarber’s home run numbers have been impressive all season, but almost everything about his game at the plate looks good right now.

• In 49 games since the All-Star break, here’s how he compares to other MLB players: 17 homers (1st), walks (1st), 41 RBI (5th), .976 OPS (11th), .400 on-base percentage (11th).

• For those still fixated on his .195 batting average, Schwarber has a top-40 on-base percentage (.345) this season.

• Over his last 30 games, he is hitting .245 with a 1.091 OPS.

Our take: In the matter of two months, Schwarber has totally changed the view of his season. He’s been a force since mid-July and is set to draw 130 walks and hit 45+ homers.

My advice?

If you still can’t process Schwarber as a leadoff hitter, stop trying. It’s working. Just go with it.

3) 🆙 Tweet of the Day: It’s the Whole Team!

If it feels like every Phillies hitter is having a big second half, it’s because they are.

Well, mostly.

Every single Phillies regular aside from Nick Castellanos has a higher second-half OPS than their overall season numbers. Ironically, it’s the lone All-Star selection from the group who has struggled to get things rolling late in the year.

4) 📊 Poll: Potential Playoff Opponents

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll [What Should the Phillies Do with Michael Lorenzen?]:

Your replies…

“Can’t count on him in a playoff start but should be good for 2-3 innings out of the pen.”

“Give him one more start, take the six man rotation thru the double header at least. But if he can’t right the ship by then, start prepping him for the bullpen.”

5) 🔗 Link Roundup:

• Bryce Harper discussed (sort of) his new look with reporters— he seemed thrilled to talk about it 🪒

• Dave Dombrowski doesn’t seem too bullish on any of the Phillies’ young pitching prospects cracking the 2024 rotation 👶

• Mick Abel then promptly went out and had one of his best starts of the season 🤷‍♂️

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!