🔔 It's Showtime

What to Watch for in Game 1

Author

Bob Wankel
October 03, 2023

LAST GAME: PHILLIES 9 - METS 1

NEXT GAME: Phillies (Zack Wheeler) vs. Marlins (Jesus Luzardo)

Today, 8:08 EDT | ESPN, 94 WIP

Good morning. Tonight, the Phillies will look to secure the first of 13 wins needed to finish what they could not a season ago. There have been plenty of fascinating storylines, memorable moments, and individual campaigns that have brought them to this point, but this season has always been about getting back to October.

I’m already two coffees deep. Maybe the caffeine has me a bit pumped up and overdramatic this morning, but from my point of view, the 2023 Phillies will ultimately be judged by what happens starting tonight. It’s showtime.

In the email today:

  1. 👀 3 Players to Watch in Game 1

  2. 🔮 Prediction Time

  3. 💪🏻 Tweet of the Day: It’s Hype Video Season

  4. 📊 Poll: What Is a Successful Season?

  5. 🔗 Link Roundup

1) 👀 Game 1: 3 Players to Watch Tonight

Obviously, Zack Wheeler and Jesus Luzardo will have a massive impact on the outcome this evening, but let’s go beyond the glaringly obvious and dial in on 3 players that could help determine Game 1.

As I wrote yesterday, Luzardo has good career numbers against several key Phillies hitters. This season, he held LHH to a .215 BA and .600 OPS, while RHH posted a .248 BA with a .745 OPS. Meanwhile, of the 22 homers allowed by Luzardo, 19 came from the right side.

You see where I’m going with this, right?

  • Nick Castellanos: The Phillies’ right fielder thought he might end up in Miami before signing with the Phillies. Now, he has a chance to make the Marlins pay for passing. He enters the postseason hitting .324 with a .930 OPS against LHP this season. Over his final 15 regular season games, he hit .294 with a 1.057 OPS. This feels like a great spot for him.

  • Alec Bohm: Luzardo has owned Bohm (1-for-11, 4K), but the Phils’ third baseman finished the regular season hitting .303 with a .903 OPS against LHP. He struggled down the stretch, going just 6-for-30, so the Phillies need him to turn it on tonight.

  • Craig Kimbrel: If the Phillies lead late, you figure they will attack a RHH pocket with Kimbrel. In 6 games against the Marlins this season, the Phillies’ (sometimes) closer has a 1.59 ERA, but don’t expect to see Kimbrel in a situation where Josh Bell may come to the plate — Bell is 4-for-5 in his career against Kimbrel with two homers and a double.

2) 🔮 Prediction Time

By now, you’re probably well-versed on the storylines and matchups. The stats, splits, and historical numbers help us get a feel for what could go down, but this is the playoffs. How players handle the moment can take all of the deep research and immediately trash it.

Ahead of first pitch tonight, allow me to take a quick stab at the 4 MLB Wild-Card matchups:

  • Diamondbacks vs. Brewers: Corbin Burnes vs. Brandon Pfaadt is a mismatch in Game 1. The Brandon Woodruff injury is a big blow for the Brewers, but Milwaukee has enough depth (and bullpen arms) to outlast Arizona.

  • Rangers vs. Rays: Jordan Montgomery is a nice arm, but the Rays have the 6th best OPS against LHP this season. I’ll bank on the Tyler Glasnow/Zach Eflin/Aaron Civale trio to find a way in 2 of 3 games.

  • Blue Jays vs. Twins: Two intriguing pitching matchups to start this series. Kevin Gausman vs. Pablo Lopez and Jose Berrios vs. Sonny Gray should mean runs will be scarce, but I have a feeling that an underachieving Blue Jays lineup gets going a bit and pulls the upset.

  • Marlins vs. Phillies: The Marlins present some matchup concerns, particularly the late-inning threats of lefties Tanner Scott and Andrew Nardi. Still, even if players like Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are neutralized (which isn’t a foregone conclusion), the Phillies have enough right-handed punch to score runs. Throw in the experience and homefield advantage, and the Phillies will get the job done.

3) 💪🏻 Tweet of the Day: Official Hype Video

It’s hype video season:

4) 📊 Poll: What Is a Success?

What would you consider a successful season?

Choose an option below.

Login or Subscribe to participate in polls.

Have additional thoughts? Reply directly to this email to comment, and see if we include your response tomorrow.

…

Results from our last poll

Your replies…

“The Phillies have a deep lineup that should produce runs against Luzardo who has not been great on the road in the second half of the season. He also hasn't that deep into games. The Marlins offense is subpar and their bullpen has thrown a lot lately. Phillies in 2!!!”

“Looking back, the Phillies' final series against the Marlins: lost two games due to Seranthony implosions. Two games they were leading. I think we're getting a better Seranthony now and he may not be placed in those tight situations this time. I just feel Phillies will take the first two and won't have to worry about a game three.”

“Beers will be necessary......”

“It’s playoff baseball and anything can happen. But this team has a professionalism and approach that should carry the day. I do think the Marlins are a young team ahead of schedule and they could use this experience as a springboard for success next year. It won’t get easier for the Fightins when the calendar goes to 2024”

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5) 🔗 Link Roundup

The newsletter today was written by: Bob Wankel (Follow on X)

Thanks for reading!